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面临反复灾害的社区脆弱性演变。

Evolution of vulnerability of communities facing repeated hazards.

作者信息

Reilly Allison C, Guikema Seth D, Zhu Laiyin, Igusa Takeru

机构信息

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, United States of America.

Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2017 Sep 27;12(9):e0182719. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0182719. eCollection 2017.

Abstract

The decisions that individuals make when recovering from and adapting to repeated hazards affect a region's vulnerability in future hazards. As such, community vulnerability is not a static property but rather a dynamic property dependent on behavioral responses to repeated hazards and damage. This paper is the first of its kind to build a framework that addresses the complex interactions between repeated hazards, regional damage, mitigation decisions, and community vulnerability. The framework enables researchers and regional planners to visualize and quantify how a community could evolve over time in response to repeated hazards under various behavioral scenarios. An illustrative example using parcel-level data from Anne Arundel County, Maryland-a county that experiences fairly frequent hurricanes-is presented to illustrate the methodology and to demonstrate how the interplay between individual choices and regional vulnerability is affected by the region's hurricane experience.

摘要

个人在从反复发生的灾害中恢复并适应时所做出的决策,会影响一个地区在未来灾害中的脆弱性。因此,社区脆弱性并非一个静态属性,而是一个动态属性,它取决于对反复发生的灾害和损害的行为反应。本文首次构建了一个框架,用以解决反复发生的灾害、区域损害、减灾决策和社区脆弱性之间的复杂相互作用。该框架使研究人员和区域规划者能够可视化并量化一个社区在各种行为情景下,如何随着时间的推移对反复发生的灾害做出反应而演变。本文给出了一个使用来自马里兰州安妮阿伦德尔县地块层面数据的示例——该县经常遭受飓风袭击——来说明该方法,并展示个人选择与区域脆弱性之间的相互作用是如何受到该地区飓风经历的影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d185/5617152/4d36c29e2014/pone.0182719.g001.jpg

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