Wróblewska Wiktoria
Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics, Poland.
Ann Agric Environ Med. 2017 Sep 21;24(3):489-495. doi: 10.5604/12321966.1233557. Epub 2017 May 11.
This study examines the geographical variation of amenable mortality in Poland, focusing primarily on the role of health care resources at the level of administrative districts and regions, and selected area socioeconomic characteristics as explanatory factors. The concept was used of amenable mortality, based on the assumption that deaths from certain causes should not occur in the presence of timely and effective health care.
Standardized death rates (SDR) from causes considered amenable to health care and, separately, for ischaemic heart disease (IHD), were calculated for each of 379 districts (NUTS 4 level) in Poland in 1991-1995 and 2006-2010, using unit mortality data from the National Causes of Death Register. The analytical procedure involved spatial analysis of the distribution of amenable mortality rates, selection of explanatory variables and fitting multilevel regression models using area-level and regional-level characteristics.
The results indicate that mortality from conditions which have become amenable to medical intervention has generally decreased in all districts of Poland in the past two decades. Considerable territorial variation in mortality can be observed. Since the 1990s, these differences have been reduced for IHD-related mortality and have increased for amenable mortality.
The presented analysis only partly confirms the correlation between variables reflecting the infrastructure of health care resources and the territorial variation in mortality from these two categories of causes of death. Significant correlations with variation in mortality are revealed for the number of primary care physicians (at district level) and the number of specialist practitioners (at regional level). However, after controlling for socioeconomic variables, such as education and low income, the effect of the health care infrastructure-related variables was considerably reduced. The multi-level models also revealed a substantial variation at the regional level, which implies that there are other unobserved contextual influences on amenable mortality at this level.
本研究考察波兰可避免死亡的地理差异,主要关注行政区和地区层面的医疗保健资源的作用,以及选定的地区社会经济特征作为解释因素。本研究采用了可避免死亡这一概念,其依据的假设是,在及时有效的医疗保健条件下,某些原因导致的死亡不应发生。
利用国家死亡原因登记处的单位死亡率数据,计算了1991 - 1995年和2006 - 2010年波兰379个区(NUTS 4级别)中每一个区因被认为可通过医疗保健避免的原因导致的标准化死亡率(SDR),以及单独的缺血性心脏病(IHD)的标准化死亡率。分析过程包括对可避免死亡率分布的空间分析、解释变量的选择以及使用地区层面和区域层面特征拟合多层次回归模型。
结果表明,在过去二十年中,波兰所有地区因已可通过医疗干预避免的疾病导致的死亡率总体上有所下降。可以观察到死亡率存在显著的地区差异。自20世纪90年代以来,与IHD相关的死亡率差异有所减小,而可避免死亡率差异有所增加。
所呈现的分析仅部分证实了反映医疗保健资源基础设施的变量与这两类死亡原因导致的死亡率的地区差异之间的相关性。揭示了与死亡率差异存在显著相关性的因素有(地区层面的)初级保健医生数量和(区域层面的)专科医生数量。然而,在控制了教育和低收入等社会经济变量后,与医疗保健基础设施相关的变量的影响大幅降低。多层次模型还揭示了区域层面存在 substantial variation,这意味着在该层面存在其他未观察到的对可避免死亡率的背景影响。 (注:“substantial variation”直译为“实质性变化”,结合语境这里可能是指区域层面存在其他未观察到的对可避免死亡率有显著影响的因素,但“substantial”一词含义较宽泛,此处翻译可能不够精准,仅供参考。)