Yao Yibin, Shan Lulu, Zhao Qingzhi
School of Geodesy and Geomatics, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan, 430079, China.
Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment and Geodesy, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan, 430079, China.
Sci Rep. 2017 Sep 29;7(1):12465. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-12593-z.
Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) can effectively retrieve precipitable water vapor (PWV) with high precision and high-temporal resolution. GNSS-derived PWV can be used to reflect water vapor variation in the process of strong convection weather. By studying the relationship between time-varying PWV and rainfall, it can be found that PWV contents increase sharply before raining. Therefore, a short-term rainfall forecasting method is proposed based on GNSS-derived PWV. Then the method is validated using hourly GNSS-PWV data from Zhejiang Continuously Operating Reference Station (CORS) network of the period 1 September 2014 to 31 August 2015 and its corresponding hourly rainfall information. The results show that the forecasted correct rate can reach about 80%, while the false alarm rate is about 66%. Compared with results of the previous studies, the correct rate is improved by about 7%, and the false alarm rate is comparable. The method is also applied to other three actual rainfall events of different regions, different durations, and different types. The results show that the method has good applicability and high accuracy, which can be used for rainfall forecasting, and in the future study, it can be assimilated with traditional weather forecasting techniques to improve the forecasted accuracy.
全球导航卫星系统（GNSS）能够有效地高精度、高时间分辨率地反演可降水量（PWV）。GNSS反演得到的PWV可用于反映强对流天气过程中的水汽变化。通过研究随时间变化的PWV与降雨之间的关系，发现降雨前PWV含量会急剧增加。因此，提出了一种基于GNSS反演PWV的短期降雨预报方法。然后利用2014年9月1日至2015年8月31日浙江连续运行参考站（CORS）网络的每小时GNSS-PWV数据及其相应的每小时降雨信息对该方法进行了验证。结果表明，预报正确率可达80%左右，误报率约为66%。与以往研究结果相比，正确率提高了约7%，误报率相当。该方法还应用于其他三个不同地区、不同持续时间和不同类型的实际降雨事件。结果表明，该方法具有良好的适用性和较高的精度，可用于降雨预报，在未来的研究中，可与传统天气预报技术相结合，提高预报精度。
