Asare Eric, Hoshide Aaron K, Drummond Francis A, Criner George K, Chen Xuan
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409.
School of Economics, University of Maine, 206 Winslow Hall, Orono, ME 04469.
J Econ Entomol. 2017 Oct 1;110(5):1980-1992. doi: 10.1093/jee/tox191.
Recent pollinator declines highlight the importance of evaluating economic risk of agricultural systems heavily dependent on rented honey bees or native pollinators. Our study analyzed variability of native bees and honey bees, and the risks these pose to profitability of Maine's wild blueberry industry. We used cross-sectional data from organic, low-, medium-, and high-input wild blueberry producers in 1993, 1997-1998, 2005-2007, and from 2011 to 2015 (n = 162 fields). Data included native and honey bee densities (count/m2/min) and honey bee stocking densities (hives/ha). Blueberry fruit set, yield, and honey bee hive stocking density models were estimated. Fruit set is impacted about 1.6 times more by native bees than honey bees on a per bee basis. Fruit set significantly explained blueberry yield. Honey bee stocking density in fields predicted honey bee foraging densities. These three models were used in enterprise budgets for all four systems from on-farm surveys of 23 conventional and 12 organic producers (2012-2013). These budgets formed the basis of Monte Carlo simulations of production and profit. Stochastic dominance of net farm income (NFI) cumulative distribution functions revealed that if organic yields are high enough (2,345 kg/ha), organic systems are economically preferable to conventional systems. However, if organic yields are lower (724 kg/ha), it is riskier with higher variability of crop yield and NFI. Although medium-input systems are stochastically dominant with lower NFI variability compared with other conventional systems, the high-input system breaks even with the low-input system if honey bee hive rental prices triple in the future.
近期传粉者数量的减少凸显了评估严重依赖租用蜜蜂或本地传粉者的农业系统经济风险的重要性。我们的研究分析了本地蜜蜂和蜜蜂的变异性，以及它们给缅因州野生蓝莓产业盈利能力带来的风险。我们使用了1993年、1997 - 1998年、2005 - 2007年以及2011年至2015年期间有机、低投入、中等投入和高投入野生蓝莓生产者的横截面数据（n = 162个地块）。数据包括本地蜜蜂和蜜蜂的密度（只数/平方米/分钟）以及蜜蜂放养密度（蜂箱/公顷）。估计了蓝莓坐果率、产量和蜜蜂蜂箱放养密度模型。就单只蜜蜂而言，本地蜜蜂对坐果率的影响比蜜蜂大约高1.6倍。坐果率显著解释了蓝莓产量。田间蜜蜂放养密度预测了蜜蜂觅食密度。这三个模型被用于对23位传统生产者和12位有机生产者进行农场调查得出的所有四个系统的企业预算中（2012 - 2013年）。这些预算构成了生产和利润蒙特卡罗模拟的基础。农场净收入（NFI）累积分布函数的随机优势表明，如果有机产量足够高（2345千克/公顷），有机系统在经济上比传统系统更具优势。然而，如果有机产量较低（724千克/公顷），作物产量和NFI的变异性更高，风险也更大。尽管与其他传统系统相比，中等投入系统在NFI变异性较低方面具有随机优势，但如果未来蜜蜂蜂箱租赁价格上涨两倍，高投入系统与低投入系统的收支相抵情况相同。
