Curran Evonne T
NHS National Services Scotland, Health Protection Scotland, Glasgow, UK.
J Infect Prev. 2015 Jan;16(1):32-38. doi: 10.1177/1757177414562057. Epub 2015 Jan 5.
During outbreaks, decisions must be made without all the required information. People, including infection prevention and control teams (IPCTs), who have to make decisions during uncertainty use heuristics to fill the missing data gaps. Heuristics are mental model short cuts that by-and-large enable us to make good decisions quickly. However, these heuristics contain biases and effects that at times lead to cognitive (thinking) errors. These cognitive errors are not made to deliberately misrepresent any given situation; we are subject to heuristic biases when we are trying to perform optimally. The science of decision making is large; there are over 100 different biases recognised and described. Outbreak Column 16 discusses and relates these heuristics and biases to decision making during outbreak prevention, preparedness and management. Insights as to how we might recognise and avoid them are offered.
在疫情爆发期间，必须在没有所有所需信息的情况下做出决策。包括感染预防与控制团队（IPCTs）在内的人员，在不确定性情况下不得不做出决策时，会使用启发法来填补缺失的数据空白。启发法是一种心理模型捷径，大体上能使我们迅速做出正确决策。然而，这些启发法存在偏差和效应，有时会导致认知（思维）错误。这些认知错误并非故意歪曲任何特定情况；当我们试图实现最佳表现时，就会受到启发式偏差的影响。决策科学的范畴很大；已识别和描述的不同偏差超过100种。《疫情专栏16》讨论了这些启发法和偏差，并将其与疫情预防、准备和管理过程中的决策联系起来。还提供了关于我们如何识别和避免这些偏差的见解。
