Asheim Leif Jarle, Hopp Petter, Grøneng Gry M, Nafstad Ola, Hegrenes Agnar, Vatn Synnøve
Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, P.O. Box 115, NO-1431 Ås, Norway.
Norwegian Veterinary Institute, P.O. Box 750 Sentrum, NO-0106 Oslo, Norway.
Prev Vet Med. 2017 Oct 1;146:86-93. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.07.017. Epub 2017 Jul 27.
In 2008, virulent footrot was detected in sheep in south-west Norway. Footrot is caused by Dichelobacter nodosus, and the outbreak was linked to live sheep imported from Denmark in 2005. A large-scale program for eradicating the disease was implemented as a joint industry and governmental driven eradication project in the years 2008-2014, and continued with surveillance and control measures by the Norwegian Food Safety Authority from 2015. The cost of the eradication program including surveillance and control measures until 2032 was assumed to reach approximately €10.8 million (NOK 90 million). A financial cost-benefit analysis, comparing costs in the eradication program with costs in two simulated scenarios, was carried out. In the scenarios, designated ModerateSpread (baseline) and SlowSpread, it was assumed that the sheep farmers would undertake some voluntary measures on their own that would slow the spread of the disease. The program obtained a positive NPV after approximately 12 years. In a stochastic analysis, the probabilities of a positive NPV were estimated to 1.000 and to 0.648 after 15 years and to 0.378 and 0.016 after ten years, for the ModerateSpread and SlowSpread scenarios respectively. A rapid start-up of the program soon after the detection of the disease was considered crucial for the economic success as the disease would have become more widespread and probably raised the costs considerably at a later start-up.
2008年，挪威西南部的绵羊中检测到恶性足腐病。足腐病由结节拟杆菌引起，此次疫情与2005年从丹麦进口的活羊有关。2008 - 2014年，作为一项由行业和政府联合推动的根除项目，实施了一项大规模的疾病根除计划，2015年起由挪威食品安全局继续采取监测和控制措施。据估计，到2032年，包括监测和控制措施在内的根除计划成本将达到约1080万欧元（9000万挪威克朗）。开展了一项财务成本效益分析，将根除计划的成本与两种模拟情景下的成本进行比较。在这些情景中，分别指定为“中度传播”（基线）和“缓慢传播”，假设养羊户会自行采取一些自愿措施来减缓疾病传播。该计划大约12年后获得了正的净现值。在一项随机分析中，对于“中度传播”和“缓慢传播”情景，15年后净现值为正的概率估计分别为1.000和0.648，10年后分别为0.378和0.016。疾病检测后该计划的迅速启动被认为对经济成功至关重要，因为如果启动较晚，疾病会传播得更广，可能会大幅提高成本。
