Todd Nicolas, Le Fur Sophie, Bougnères Pierre, Valleron Alain-Jacques
INSERM U1169, Le Kremlin-Bicêtre, France.
Médecine des Adolescents, Hôpital Bicêtre, Paris Sud University, Le Kremlin-Bicêtre, France.
PLoS One. 2017 Oct 16;12(10):e0185848. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0185848. eCollection 2017.
Testing whether familial socioeconomic status (SES) in childhood is a predictor of mortality has rarely been done on historical cohorts.
The birth certificates of 4,805 individuals born 1914-1916 in 16 districts of the Paris region were retrieved. The handwritten information provided the occupation of parents, the legitimacy status, life events (e.g. marriage, divorce), and the precise date of death when after 1945 (i.e. age 31 years (y) in the cohort). We used the median age at death (MAD) as a global measure of mortality, then studied separately survival to and after 31 y. Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and mixed effect Cox models were used.
MAD showed large variations according to paternal occupation. The lowest MAD in both sexes was that of workers' children: it was 56.3 y (95% CI: [48.6-62.7]) in men and 67.4 y (95% CI: [60.8-72.7]) in women, respectively (95% CI: 13.4 y [5.7-21.3]) and 12.3 y (95% CI: [4.0-19.2]) below the highest MAD attained. MAD experienced by illegitimate children was 18.9 y (95% CI: [13.3-32.3]) shorter than of legitimate children. The multivariate analysis revealed that in both sexes survival to age 31 y was predicted independently by legitimacy and paternal occupation. Paternal occupation was found significantly associated with mortality after age 31 y in females only: accordingly difference in life expectancy at age 31 y was 4.4 y (95% CI: [1.2-7.6]) between upper class and workers' daughters.
Paternal occupation and legitimacy status were strong predictors of offspring longevity in this one-century historical cohort born during World War One.
在历史队列中，很少有人研究儿童时期的家庭社会经济地位（SES）是否是死亡率的预测因素。
检索了巴黎地区16个区1914年至1916年出生的4805人的出生证明。手写信息提供了父母的职业、婚姻状况、生活事件（如结婚、离婚）以及1945年以后（即队列中31岁时）的精确死亡日期。我们将死亡年龄中位数（MAD）作为死亡率的总体衡量指标，然后分别研究31岁时及之后的生存率。使用了链式方程多元插补法（MICE）、广义相加模型（GAMs）和混合效应Cox模型。
MAD因父亲职业不同而有很大差异。男女中MAD最低的都是工人子女：男性为56.3岁（95%置信区间：[48.6 - 62.7]），女性为67.4岁（95%置信区间：[60.8 - 72.7]），分别比达到的最高MAD低13.4岁（95%置信区间：[5.7 - 21.3]）和12.3岁（95%置信区间：[4.0 - 19.2]）。非婚生子女的MAD比婚生子女短18.9岁（95%置信区间：[13.3 - 32.3]）。多变量分析显示，在男女中，31岁时的生存率均由婚姻状况和父亲职业独立预测。仅在女性中发现父亲职业与31岁以后的死亡率显著相关：因此，上层阶级和工人阶级女儿在31岁时的预期寿命差异为4.4岁（95%置信区间：[1.2 - 7.6]）。
在这个一战期间出生的百年历史队列中，父亲职业和婚姻状况是后代长寿的有力预测因素。
