Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Erb Institute for Global Sustainable Enterprise, School for Environment & Sustainability, and Ross School of Business, University of Michigan, MI, USA.
Risk Anal. 2018 Mar;38(3):548-561. doi: 10.1111/risa.12851. Epub 2017 Oct 23.
Many studies have examined the general public's flood risk perceptions in the aftermath of local and regional flooding. However, relatively few studies have focused on large-scale events that affect tens of thousands of people within an urban center. Similarly, in spite of previous research on flood risks, unresolved questions persist regarding the variables that might influence perceptions of risk and vulnerability, along with management preferences. In light of the opportunities presented by these knowledge gaps, the research reported here examined public perceptions of flood risk and vulnerability, and management preferences, within the city of Calgary in the aftermath of extensive flooding in 2013. Our findings, which come from an online survey of residents, reveal that direct experience with flooding is not a differentiating factor for risk perceptions when comparing evacuees with nonevacuees who might all experience future risks. However, we do find that judgments about vulnerability-as a function of how people perceive physical distance-do differ according to one's evacuation experience. Our results also indicate that concern about climate change is an important predictor of flood risk perceptions, as is trust in government risk managers. In terms of mitigation preferences, our results reveal differences in support for large infrastructure projects based on whether respondents feel they might actually benefit from them.
许多研究都考察了公众在地方性和区域性洪水灾害后的洪水风险感知。然而，很少有研究关注影响城市中心数以万计人口的大规模事件。同样，尽管有关于洪水风险的先前研究，但仍存在一些未解决的问题，这些问题涉及可能影响风险和脆弱性感知以及管理偏好的变量。鉴于这些知识空白带来的机会，这里报告的研究在 2013 年大规模洪水之后，考察了卡尔加里市居民对洪水风险和脆弱性的看法，以及管理偏好。我们的研究结果来自对居民的在线调查，表明在比较可能都面临未来风险的撤离者和非撤离者的风险感知时，直接的洪水经历并不是一个区分因素。然而，我们确实发现，人们对身体距离的感知会影响对脆弱性的判断。我们的研究结果还表明，对气候变化的担忧是洪水风险感知的一个重要预测因素，对政府风险管理者的信任也是如此。就缓解偏好而言，我们的研究结果显示，根据受访者是否认为自己可能从中受益，对大型基础设施项目的支持存在差异。
