社会经济脆弱性与对环境风险的适应:以孟加拉国气候变化与洪水为例的研究

Socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risk: a case study of climate change and flooding in Bangladesh.

作者信息

Brouwer Roy, Akter Sonia, Brander Luke, Haque Enamul

机构信息

Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

出版信息

Risk Anal. 2007 Apr;27(2):313-26. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00884.x.

Abstract

In this article we investigate the complex relationship between environmental risk, poverty, and vulnerability in a case study carried out in one of the poorest and most flood-prone countries in the world, focusing on household and community vulnerability and adaptive coping mechanisms. Based upon the steadily growing amount of literature in this field we develop and test our own analytical model. In a large-scale household survey carried out in southeast Bangladesh, we ask almost 700 floodplain residents living without any flood protection along the River Meghna about their flood risk exposure, flood problems, flood damage, and coping mechanisms. Novel in our study is the explicit testing of the effectiveness of adaptive coping strategies to reduce flood damage costs. We show that, households with lower income and less access to productive natural assets face higher exposure to risk of flooding. Disparity in income and asset distribution at community level furthermore tends to be higher at higher risk exposure levels, implying that individually vulnerable households are also collectively more vulnerable. Regarding the identification of coping mechanisms to deal with flood events, we look at both the ex ante household level preparedness for flood events and the ex post availability of community-level support and disaster relief. We find somewhat paradoxically that the people that face the highest risk of flooding are the least well prepared, both in terms of household-level ex ante preparedness and community-level ex post flood relief.

摘要

在本文中,我们通过对世界上最贫穷且洪水易发性最高的国家之一进行案例研究,探讨环境风险、贫困与脆弱性之间的复杂关系,重点关注家庭和社区的脆弱性以及适应性应对机制。基于该领域不断增加的文献数量,我们开发并测试了自己的分析模型。在孟加拉国东南部开展的一项大规模家庭调查中,我们询问了近700名居住在梅克纳河沿岸且没有任何防洪设施的洪泛区居民,了解他们面临的洪水风险、洪水问题、洪水损失以及应对机制。我们研究的新颖之处在于明确测试了适应性应对策略降低洪水损失成本的有效性。我们发现,收入较低且获取生产性自然资产机会较少的家庭面临更高的洪水风险。此外,社区层面收入和资产分配的差距在高风险暴露水平下往往更大,这意味着个体脆弱的家庭在集体层面也更脆弱。关于应对洪水事件的应对机制识别,我们既考察了家庭层面事前对洪水事件的准备情况,也考察了社区层面事后的支持和救灾情况。我们发现有些自相矛盾的是,无论是从家庭层面的事前准备还是社区层面的事后洪水救济来看,面临最高洪水风险的人群准备最不足。

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