Service Mycology & Aerobiology, Scientific Institute of Public Health, Rue Wytsmanstraat 14, 1050, Brussels, Belgium.
Service Health & Environment, Scientific Institute of Public Health, Brussels, Belgium.
Int J Biometeorol. 2018 Mar;62(3):483-491. doi: 10.1007/s00484-017-1457-3. Epub 2017 Oct 24.
A clear rise in seasonal and annual temperatures, a gradual increase of total radiation, and a relative trend of change in seasonal precipitation have been observed for the last four decades in Brussels (Belgium). These local modifications may have a direct and indirect public health impact by altering the timing and intensity of allergenic pollen seasons. In this study, we assessed the statistical correlations (Spearman's test) between pollen concentration and meteorological conditions by using long-term daily datasets of 11 pollen types (8 trees and 3 herbaceous plants) and 10 meteorological parameters observed in Brussels between 1982 and 2015. Furthermore, we analyzed the rate of change in the annual cycle of the same selected pollen types by the Mann-Kendall test. We revealed an overall trend of increase in daily airborne tree pollen (except for the European beech tree) and an overall trend of decrease in daily airborne pollen from herbaceous plants (except for Urticaceae). These results revealed an earlier onset of the flowering period for birch, oak, ash, plane, grasses, and Urticaceae. Finally, the rates of change in pollen annual cycles were shown to be associated with the rates of change in the annual cycles of several meteorological parameters such as temperature, radiation, humidity, and rainfall.
在过去的四十年中，人们观察到布鲁塞尔（比利时）的季节性和年际温度明显上升，总辐射逐渐增加，以及季节性降水的相对变化趋势。这些地方变化可能会通过改变致敏花粉季节的时间和强度，对公共卫生产生直接和间接的影响。在这项研究中，我们使用 1982 年至 2015 年期间在布鲁塞尔观测到的 11 种花粉类型（8 种树木和 3 种草本植物）和 10 种气象参数的长期每日数据集，通过 Spearman 检验评估了花粉浓度与气象条件之间的统计相关性。此外，我们通过 Mann-Kendall 检验分析了相同选定花粉类型的年循环变化率。我们发现，每天空气中的树木花粉（欧洲山毛榉树除外）总体呈上升趋势，而每天空气中的草本植物花粉（荨麻科除外）总体呈下降趋势。这些结果表明，桦树、橡树、白蜡树、悬铃木、草类和荨麻科的花期提前。最后，显示花粉年循环的变化率与温度、辐射、湿度和降雨量等几种气象参数的年循环变化率有关。
