Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, school of Public Health, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; Montreal's Public Health Department, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering University of Central Florida, FL, USA.
Environ Res. 2018 Jan;160:412-419. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2017.10.025. Epub 2017 Oct 23.
Since public transit infrastructure affects road traffic volumes and influences transportation mode choice, which in turn impacts health, it is important to estimate the alteration of the health burden linked with transit policies.
We quantified the variation in health benefits and burden between a business as usual (BAU) and a public transit (PT) scenarios in 2031 (with 8 and 19 new subway and train stations) for the greater Montreal region.
Using mode choice and traffic assignment models, we predicted the transportation mode choice and traffic assignment on the road network. Subsequently, we estimated the distance travelled in each municipality by mode, the minutes spent in active transportation, as well as traffic emissions. Thereafter we estimated the health burden attributed to air pollution and road traumas and the gains associated with active transportation for both the BAU and PT scenarios.
We predicted a slight decrease of overall trips and kilometers travelled by car as well as an increase of active transportation for the PT in 2031 vs the BAU. Our analysis shows that new infrastructure will reduce the overall burden of transportation by 2.5 DALYs per 100,000 persons. This decrease is caused by the reduction of road traumas occurring in the inner suburbs and central Montreal region as well as gains in active transportation in the inner suburbs.
Based on the results of our study, transportation planned public transit projects for Montreal are unlikely to reduce drastically the burden of disease attributable to road vehicles and infrastructures in the Montreal region. The impact of the planned transportation infrastructures seems to be very low and localized mainly in the areas where new public transit stations are planned.
由于公共交通基础设施会影响道路交通量，并影响交通方式选择，而这又会反过来影响健康，因此，评估与交通政策相关的健康负担变化非常重要。
我们量化了 2031 年（新增 8 个和 19 个地铁和火车站）大蒙特利尔地区的常规情景（BAU）和公共交通情景（PT）之间健康效益和负担的变化。
使用模式选择和交通分配模型，我们预测了道路交通网络上的交通模式选择和交通分配。随后，我们估计了每个城市的出行距离、活跃交通所花费的时间，以及交通排放量。之后，我们评估了与空气污染和道路交通创伤相关的健康负担，以及与 BAU 和 PT 情景相关的活跃交通收益。
与 BAU 相比，我们预测 2031 年 PT 模式下整体出行次数和汽车行驶里程将略有减少，而活跃交通量将增加。我们的分析表明，新基础设施将使交通负担整体减少 2.5 个 DALY/每 10 万人。这种减少是由于内郊区和蒙特利尔市中心地区的道路交通创伤减少，以及内郊区活跃交通的增加所导致的。
根据我们的研究结果，蒙特利尔计划中的公共交通基础设施不太可能大幅降低归因于道路车辆和基础设施的疾病负担。计划中的交通基础设施的影响似乎非常低，主要集中在计划新增公共交通站的地区。
