Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China; State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution (Jiangsu Province), Nanjing 210023, China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographic Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China.
Young Researchers and Elites Club, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Apr 15;621:1124-1141. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.114. Epub 2017 Nov 1.
Floods are among Earth's most common natural hazards, and they cause major economic losses and seriously affect peoples' lives and health. This paper addresses the development of a flood susceptibility assessment that uses intelligent techniques and GIS. An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was coupled with a genetic algorithm and differential evolution for flood spatial modelling. The model considers thirteen hydrologic, morphologic and lithologic parameters for the flood susceptibility assessment, and Hengfeng County in China was chosen for the application of the model due to data availability and the 195 total flood events. The flood locations were randomly divided into two subsets, namely, training (70% of the total) and testing (30%). The Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) approach was used to assess the relation between the floods and influencing parameters. Subsequently, two data mining techniques were combined with the ANFIS model, including the ANFIS-Genetic Algorithm and the ANFIS-Differential Evolution, to be used for flood spatial modelling and zonation. The flood susceptibility maps were produced, and their robustness was checked using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The results showed that the area under the curve (AUC) for all models was >0.80. The highest AUC value was for the ANFIS-DE model (0.852), followed by ANFIS-GA (0.849). According to the RMSE and MSE methods, the ANFIS-DE hybrid model is more suitable for flood susceptibility mapping in the study area. The proposed method is adaptable and can easily be applied in other sites for flood management and prevention.
洪水是地球上最常见的自然灾害之一,它们会造成重大的经济损失,并严重影响人们的生活和健康。本文提出了一种利用智能技术和 GIS 进行洪水易发性评估的方法。该方法将自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)与遗传算法和差分进化相结合,用于洪水空间建模。该模型考虑了 13 个水文、形态和岩性参数,用于洪水易发性评估,并选择中国横峰县作为模型的应用地点,因为那里的数据可用性和 195 次总洪灾事件。洪水地点被随机分为两个子集,即训练集(总数据的 70%)和测试集(总数据的 30%)。采用逐步权重评估比率分析(SWARA)方法评估洪水与影响参数之间的关系。随后,将两种数据挖掘技术与 ANFIS 模型相结合,包括 ANFIS-遗传算法和 ANFIS-差分进化,用于洪水空间建模和分区。生成了洪水易发性图,并使用接收器工作特征(ROC)曲线检查其稳健性。结果表明,所有模型的曲线下面积(AUC)均大于 0.80。其中,ANFIS-DE 模型的 AUC 值最高(0.852),其次是 ANFIS-GA(0.849)。根据 RMSE 和 MSE 方法,ANFIS-DE 混合模型更适合研究区的洪水易发性制图。该方法具有适应性,可以很容易地应用于其他洪水管理和预防的地点。