Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331;
School of Law, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Nov 7;114(45):11884-11889. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1706847114. Epub 2017 Oct 23.
Water scarcity afflicts societies worldwide. Anticipating water shortages is vital because of water's indispensable role in social-ecological systems. But the challenge is daunting due to heterogeneity, feedbacks, and water's spatial-temporal sequencing throughout such systems. Regional system models with sufficient detail can help address this challenge. In our study, a detailed coupled human-natural system model of one such region identifies how climate change and socioeconomic growth will alter the availability and use of water in coming decades. Results demonstrate how water scarcity varies greatly across small distances and brief time periods, even in basins where water may be relatively abundant overall. Some of these results were unexpected and may appear counterintuitive to some observers. Key determinants of water scarcity are found to be the cost of transporting and storing water, society's institutions that circumscribe human choices, and the opportunity cost of water when alternative uses compete.
水资源短缺困扰着全世界的社会。由于水在社会-生态系统中不可或缺的作用，预测水资源短缺至关重要。但由于系统的异质性、反馈和水的时空顺序，这一挑战令人望而却步。具有足够详细信息的区域系统模型可以帮助应对这一挑战。在我们的研究中，对这样一个区域的详细耦合人类-自然系统模型的研究确定了气候变化和社会经济增长将如何在未来几十年改变水资源的可获得性和利用。研究结果表明，即使在水资源总体上相对丰富的流域，水资源短缺在小范围内和短时间内也会有很大差异。其中一些结果出人意料，对一些观察者来说可能有些违反直觉。水资源短缺的关键决定因素被发现是运输和储存水的成本、限制人类选择的社会制度以及当替代用途竞争时水的机会成本。
