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靶向恢复作为一种有效的传染病传播控制策略。

Targeted Recovery as an Effective Strategy against Epidemic Spreading.

机构信息

ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 27, CH-8093, Zurich, Switzerland.

Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Ceará, 60451-970, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2017 Oct 30;7(1):14356. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-14763-5.

Abstract

We propose a targeted intervention protocol where recovery is restricted to individuals that have the least number of infected neighbours. Our recovery strategy is highly efficient on any kind of network, since epidemic outbreaks are minimal when compared to the baseline scenario of spontaneous recovery. In the case of spatially embedded networks, we find that an epidemic stays strongly spatially confined with a characteristic length scale undergoing a random walk. We demonstrate numerically and analytically that this dynamics leads to an epidemic spot with a flat surface structure and a radius that grows linearly with the spreading rate.

摘要

我们提出了一种有针对性的干预协议,其中恢复仅限于受感染邻居最少的个体。与自发恢复的基线情况相比,我们的恢复策略在任何类型的网络上都非常有效,因为爆发的疫情最少。在空间嵌入网络的情况下,我们发现疫情仍然强烈地局限在一个特征长度尺度上,经历着随机游走。我们通过数值和分析证明,这种动力学导致了一个具有平坦表面结构的疫情点,其半径随传播速度呈线性增长。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/034e/5662666/d53f5e3ba33f/41598_2017_14763_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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