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存在一个预防行为反应的阈值以抑制传染病传播。

On the existence of a threshold for preventive behavioral responses to suppress epidemic spreading.

机构信息

K-State Epicenter, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2012;2:632. doi: 10.1038/srep00632. Epub 2012 Sep 5.

Abstract

The spontaneous behavioral responses of individuals to the progress of an epidemic are recognized to have a significant impact on how the infection spreads. One observation is that, even if the infection strength is larger than the classical epidemic threshold, the initially growing infection can diminish as the result of preventive behavioral patterns adopted by the individuals. In order to investigate such dynamics of the epidemic spreading, we use a simple behavioral model coupled with the individual-based SIS epidemic model where susceptible individuals adopt a preventive behavior when sensing infection. We show that, given any infection strength and contact topology, there exists a region in the behavior-related parameter space such that infection cannot survive in long run and is completely contained. Several simulation results, including a spreading scenario in a realistic contact network from a rural district in the State of Kansas, are presented to support our analytical arguments.

摘要

个体对疫情发展的自发行为反应被认为对感染的传播方式有重大影响。一个观察结果是,即使感染强度大于经典的传染病阈值,由于个体采取的预防行为模式,最初增长的感染也可能减少。为了研究这种传染病传播的动态,我们使用了一个简单的行为模型,结合基于个体的 SIS 传染病模型,其中易感个体在感知到感染时采取预防行为。我们表明,给定任何感染强度和接触拓扑结构,在与行为相关的参数空间中存在一个区域,使得感染在长期内无法存活并被完全遏制。我们提出了几个模拟结果,包括堪萨斯州一个农村地区的现实接触网络中的传播情景,以支持我们的分析论点。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c649/3433689/8f42c2ad2ccb/srep00632-f1.jpg

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