Pierce J P, Fiore M C, Novotny T E, Hatziandreu E J, Davis R M
Office on Smoking and Health, Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta.
JAMA. 1989 Jan 6;261(1):61-5.
Data from National Health Interview Surveys from 1974 through 1985 are used to project cigarette smoking prevalence to the year 2000. Smoking prevalence in the United States has declined at a linear rate since 1974. If this trend continues, in the year 2000, 22% of the adult population (40 million Americans) will be smokers. By the year 2000, the major inequalities in prevalence will occur among educational categories. At least 30% of those who have not proceeded beyond a high school education will be smokers, whereas less than 10% of college graduates will smoke. Among the other sociodemographic subgroups, smoking prevalence is expected to decrease by the year 2000 to 20% among men, to 23% among women, to 25% among blacks, and to 21% among whites. Between 1974 and 1985, approximately 1.3 million persons per year became former smokers, indicating considerable success in public health efforts to encourage people to stop smoking. However, in the early 1980s, approximately 1 million new young persons per year were recruited to the ranks of regular smokers. This is equivalent to about 3000 new smokers each day. Public health efforts need to focus more on preventing young people from starting to smoke, and such prevention efforts should particularly target less educated socioeconomic groups.
利用1974年至1985年全国健康访谈调查的数据来预测到2000年时的吸烟流行率。自1974年以来，美国的吸烟流行率呈线性下降。如果这一趋势持续下去，到2000年，22%的成年人口（4000万美国人）将是吸烟者。到2000年，吸烟流行率的主要不平等将出现在不同教育程度人群中。至少30%未接受过高中以上教育的人将是吸烟者，而大学毕业生中吸烟者不到10%。在其他社会人口亚组中，预计到2000年男性吸烟流行率将降至20%，女性降至23%，黑人降至25%，白人降至21%。1974年至1985年间，每年约有130万人成为既往吸烟者，这表明在鼓励人们戒烟的公共卫生努力方面取得了相当大的成功。然而，在20世纪80年代初，每年约有100万年轻人加入经常吸烟者行列。这相当于每天约有3000名新吸烟者。公共卫生努力需要更多地关注防止年轻人开始吸烟，而且这种预防努力应特别针对受教育程度较低的社会经济群体。
