Nakamura Yosikazu, Yashiro Mayumi, Yamashita Maho, Aoyama Namiko, Otaki Ushio, Ozeki Yukie, Sano Takashi, Kojo Takao, Ae Ryusuke, Aoyama Yasuko, Makino Nobuko, Kotani Kazuhiko
Department of Public Health, Jichi Medical University, Shimotsuke, Tochigi, Japan.
Pediatr Int. 2018 Jan;60(1):19-22. doi: 10.1111/ped.13450.
Although the incidence rates of Kawasaki disease (KD) in Japan have been determined in nationwide surveys, the cumulative incidence, that is, the proportion of those with a history of KD in the general population of 10-year-olds, is currently unknown. The aim of this study was therefore to assess the cumulative incidence of KD in Japan.
Using the age- and sex-specific incidence rate of KD in Japan from the results of the nationwide surveys, incidence probabilities, that is, the age-specific number of KD patients divided by the population used in the vital statistics, and cumulative proportions of those not affected by KD up to the end of 9 years of age, were calculated. The cumulative incidence was then defined as 1 minus the cumulative proportion. The observed age classes were 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-9 years. All data were calculated by sex.
The cumulative incidence was 0.004833 for boys and 0.003474 for girls in 1991, but was 0.015284 and 0.012145 in 2014, respectively. According to these figures, 15.284 per 1,000 boys and 12.145 per 1,000 girls have been affected by KD by the age of 10 years. The birth-cohort cumulative incidences had similar trends.
More than 10 persons in 1,000 have a history of KD at age 10 years in Japan.
尽管日本已通过全国性调查确定了川崎病（KD）的发病率，但目前尚不清楚累积发病率，即10岁普通人群中曾患川崎病者的比例。因此，本研究旨在评估日本川崎病的累积发病率。
利用全国性调查结果中日本川崎病的年龄和性别特异性发病率，计算发病概率，即川崎病患者的年龄特异性数量除以生命统计中使用的人口数，以及截至9岁未患川崎病者的累积比例。然后将累积发病率定义为1减去累积比例。观察的年龄组为0、1、2、3、4岁以及5至9岁。所有数据按性别计算。
1991年男孩的累积发病率为0.004833，女孩为0.003474，但2014年分别为0.015284和0.012145。根据这些数据，到10岁时，每1000名男孩中有15.284人、每1000名女孩中有12.145人曾患川崎病。出生队列累积发病率有相似趋势。
在日本，每1000人中超过10人在10岁时有川崎病病史。
