Pesola Francesca, Ferlay Jacques, Sasieni Peter
Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, Charterhouse Square, London EC1M 6BQ, UK.
Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon 69372, France.
Br J Cancer. 2017 Dec 5;117(12):1865-1873. doi: 10.1038/bjc.2017.341. Epub 2017 Nov 2.
Estimating the future incidence of cancer is important to establish sufficient service provision, however, work in this area is limited for cancer in children, adolescents, and young adults (aged 0-24).
Age-period-cohort models were applied to cancer incidence rates for the period 1971-2013 in England. This allowed us to extrapolate past trends to 2030. We used the appropriate cancer classification developed for cancers in children and young adults, which are analysed as two separate groups to capture inherent differences.
The data set consisted of 119 485 records (55% among 15+ years group). Overall, cancer rates have increased over time and are expected to continue to rise into the future. Of particular interest is the increase in rates of germ cell tumours (in males) and carcinomas (in females) in young adults, since their rates are projected to further increase over time.
The estimated future incidence rates provide a baseline for different cancer subtypes, which will allow policymakers to develop a contingency plan to deal with future demands.
估计未来癌症发病率对于建立充足的医疗服务至关重要，然而，针对儿童、青少年及青年（0至24岁）癌症的这方面研究有限。
将年龄-时期-队列模型应用于1971年至2013年英格兰的癌症发病率。这使我们能够将过去的趋势外推至2030年。我们使用了为儿童和青年癌症开发的适当癌症分类方法，将其分为两个独立组进行分析，以捕捉内在差异。
数据集包含119485条记录（15岁及以上年龄组占55%）。总体而言，癌症发病率随时间推移有所上升，预计未来还将继续上升。特别值得关注的是青年男性生殖细胞肿瘤和青年女性癌的发病率上升，因为预计其发病率还会随时间进一步增加。
估计的未来发病率为不同癌症亚型提供了基线，这将使政策制定者能够制定应对未来需求的应急计划。
