Centre for Dermato-Oncology, Department of Dermatology, Eberhard-Karls University, Tuebingen, Germany.
Portuguese Air Force Health Care Direction, Lisbon, Portugal.
J Eur Acad Dermatol Venereol. 2019 Jul;33(7):1272-1280. doi: 10.1111/jdv.15322. Epub 2019 Apr 17.
To characterize incidence and mortality trends of cutaneous melanoma (CM) in Germany to extrapolate these data until 2030.
We evaluated data from the Centre for Cancer Registry Data (1999-2012) and from the Saarland Cancer Registry (1970-2012). Age-standardized (according to the European Standard Population, WHO 1976) incidence and mortality rates [age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs)] and crude incidence and mortality rates [crude incidence rates (CIRs) and crude mortality rates (CMRs)] were analysed.
In entire Germany, ASIRs increased by 55% to 19.2 and CIRs by 77% to 26.0 new cases per 100 000 from 1999 to 2012. ASMRs remained stable, whereas CMR increased by 58% to 4.1 for males and by 30% to 3.0 for females per 100 000. In the Federal State of Saarland, ASIRs increased more than four-fold to 13.1, CIRs increased six-seven fold to 18.5/100 000 from 1970 to 2012. In the same period, ASMRs increased three-fold in males and two-fold in females to 2.5 and 1.6, whereas CMRs increased 5.5-fold in males and 3.5-fold in females to 3.9 and 3.2/100 000, mainly caused by steep increases of CIRs and CMRs in age groups ≥60 years. Projected CIRs will rise to 44-46 for males and 38-40 for females in 2030. Steepest increases were extrapolated for patients ≥60 years, especially for males, but are also expected for age groups of 40-59 years. In contrast, CIRs are anticipated to stabilize for subjects <40 years.
There is a constant increase in incidence and mortality rates for CM in Germany. As the German population is ageing and the current population has already accumulated high levels of UV exposure, a further increase in melanoma incidence is projected for the future without signs of levelling-off.
描述德国皮肤黑色素瘤（CM）的发病率和死亡率趋势，以便外推至 2030 年。
我们评估了癌症登记中心数据（1999-2012 年）和萨尔州癌症登记处（1970-2012 年）的数据。分析了年龄标准化（根据欧洲标准人口，世卫组织 1976 年）发病率和死亡率（年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR））以及粗发病率和死亡率（粗发病率（CIR）和粗死亡率（CMR））。
在德国全境，1999 年至 2012 年，ASIR 增加了 55%，达到 19.2，CIR 增加了 77%，达到 26.0 例/每 10 万人。ASMR 保持稳定，而 CMR 男性增加了 58%，达到每 10 万人 4.1，女性增加了 30%，达到每 10 万人 3.0。在萨尔州，ASIR 增加了四倍以上，达到 13.1，CIR 增加了六到七倍，达到每 10 万人 18.5。在同一时期，男性 ASMR 增加了三倍，女性增加了两倍，达到 2.5 和 1.6，而 CMR 男性增加了五倍半，女性增加了三倍半，达到每 10 万人 3.9 和 3.2。这主要是由于 60 岁以上人群的 CIR 和 CMR 急剧增加所致。预计 2030 年男性 CIR 将上升至 44-46，女性上升至 38-40。预计 60 岁以上患者的增长率最大，尤其是男性，但 40-59 岁年龄组也预计会增加。相比之下，<40 岁的人群的 CIR 预计将稳定。
德国 CM 的发病率和死亡率呈持续上升趋势。随着德国人口老龄化以及当前人口已经积累了高水平的紫外线照射，预计未来黑色素瘤的发病率将进一步上升，而且没有趋平的迹象。
