Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Regioni Lazio e Toscana, Roma, Italy.
Dipartimento di Medicina Veterinaria e Produzioni Animali, Università degli Studi di Napoli "Federico II,", Napoli, Italy.
Risk Anal. 2018 Jun;38(6):1202-1222. doi: 10.1111/risa.12934. Epub 2017 Nov 3.
Toxoplasmosis is a cosmopolitan disease and has a broad range of hosts, including humans and several wild and domestic animals. The human infection is mostly acquired through the consumption of contaminated food and pork meat has been recognized as one of the major sources of transmission. There are, however, certain fundamental differences between countries; therefore, the present study specifically aims to evaluate the exposure of the Italian population to Toxoplasma gondii through the ingestion of several types of pork meat products habitually consumed in Italy and to estimate the annual number of human infections within two subgroups of the population. A quantitative risk assessment model was built for this reason and was enriched with new elements in comparison to other similar risk assessments in order to enhance its accuracy. Sensitivity analysis and two alternative scenarios were implemented to identify the factors that have the highest impact on risk and to simulate different plausible conditions, respectively. The estimated overall average number of new infections per year among adults is 12,513 and 92 for pregnant women. The baseline model showed that almost all these infections are associated with the consumption of fresh meat cuts and preparations (mean risk of infection varied between 4.5 × 10 and 5.5 × 10 ) and only a small percentage is due to fermented sausages/salami. On the contrary, salt-cured meat products seem to pose minor risk but further investigations are needed to clarify still unclear aspects. Among all the considered variables, cooking temperature and bradyzoites' concentration in muscle impacted most the risk.
弓形虫病是一种世界性疾病，宿主范围广泛，包括人类和几种野生动物和家养动物。人类感染主要通过食用受污染的食物和猪肉获得，猪肉已被认为是主要传播源之一。然而，各国之间存在一些根本性差异；因此，本研究专门旨在评估意大利人口通过食用意大利人常吃的几种猪肉产品摄入刚地弓形虫的情况，并估计该人群的两个亚组中每年的人类感染人数。为此，建立了定量风险评估模型，并与其他类似风险评估相比，加入了新元素，以提高其准确性。实施了敏感性分析和两种替代方案，以确定对风险影响最大的因素，并分别模拟不同的合理情况。估计成年人群中每年新感染的总平均值为 12513 例，孕妇为 92 例。基本模型表明，几乎所有这些感染都与食用新鲜肉切块和肉类制品有关（感染风险平均值在 4.5×10 和 5.5×10 之间），只有一小部分与发酵香肠/萨拉米有关。相反，盐腌肉产品似乎风险较小，但需要进一步调查以澄清仍不清楚的方面。在所有考虑的变量中，烹饪温度和肌肉中的缓殖子浓度对风险的影响最大。
