Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Department of Management, Marketing and Business Administration, Arthur J. Bauernfeind College of Business, Murray State University, Murray, KY 42071, USA.
Environ Res. 2018 Feb;161:104-113. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2017.10.037. Epub 2017 Nov 3.
An integrated risk is a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident caused by multiple hazards. An integrated probability risk is the expected value of disaster. Due to the difficulty of assessing an integrated probability risk with a small sample, weighting methods and copulas are employed to avoid this obstacle. To resolve the problem, in this paper, we develop the information diffusion technique to construct a joint probability distribution and a vulnerability surface. Then, an integrated risk can be directly assessed by using a small sample. A case of an integrated risk caused by flood and earthquake is given to show how the suggested technique is used to assess the integrated risk of annual property loss.
综合风险是指与多种灾害相关的未来某个不良事件场景。综合概率风险是灾难的预期值。由于用小样本评估综合概率风险存在困难，因此采用加权方法和 Copula 来避免这一障碍。为了解决这个问题，本文提出了一种信息扩散技术来构建联合概率分布和易损性曲面，从而可以直接用小样本评估综合风险。通过洪水和地震引起的综合风险案例，展示了如何使用建议的技术来评估年度财产损失的综合风险。
