Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730020, China.
Sci Rep. 2019 Jan 30;9(1):964. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-37362-4.
Based on information distribution and diffusion method theory and combined with the standardized precipitation index and relative meteorological yield data, meteorological factors and social factors were comprehensively considered to assess the vulnerability of maize (Zea mays) to drought. The probability distribution curve of meteorological drought degree (MDD) and relative meteorological yield in the eastern part of Northwest China (Gansu, Ningxia and Shaanxi) from 1978 to 2016 were obtained, using a two-dimensional normal information diffusion method to construct the vulnerability relationship between MDD and relative meteorological yield. The drought vulnerability curve of maize in the study area was obtained. The probability distribution of MDD was multiplied by the fragility curve and summed to obtain the multi-year average risk. The MDD probability distribution curve showed that the probability of moderate drought in Shaanxi was relatively high, followed by Gansu and Ningxia. The probability distribution of Gansu was more discrete. The probability of strong meteorological drought in Ningxia was high, followed by Shaanxi and Gansu. Probability distribution of relative meteorological yield for maize in Gansu Province was highly discrete, with thick tailings, large uncertainties, and more extreme values, which were strongly affected by meteorological conditions, followed by Shaanxi and Ningxia. Taking meteorological drought as the cause and maize damage as the result, the vulnerability relationship between MDD and drought damage was obtained. With an increased MDD, the relative meteorological yield of maize gradually declined. From the average value, when MDD was less than -2.60, the relative meteorological yield of maize was reduced within 15%; when MDD was greater than -2.60, the relative meteorological yield of maize increased within 10%. When the degree of meteorological drought exceeded -2.2, maize was most vulnerable to drought in Shaanxi followed by Ningxia and Gansu. When meteorological drought was less than -2.2, maize was most vulnerable to drought in Shaanxi followed by Gansu and Ningxia. The expected values of relative meteorological production in Gansu, Ningxia, and Shaanxi were 1.36%, 2.48%, and -1.76%, respectively; therefore, Shaanxi had the highest maize drought risk, followed by Gansu and Ningxia. This research had a clear physical background and clear risk connotations. The results provide a data foundation and a theoretical basis for drought disaster reduction for maize in the study area.
基于信息分发和扩散方法理论，结合标准化降水指数和相对气象产量数据，综合考虑气象因素和社会因素，评估了中国西北地区东部（甘肃、宁夏和陕西）玉米（Zea mays）对干旱的脆弱性。采用二维正态信息扩散法构建气象干旱程度（MDD）与相对气象产量的脆弱性关系，得到了 1978 年至 2016 年中国西北地区东部（甘肃、宁夏和陕西）的气象干旱程度（MDD）和相对气象产量的概率分布曲线。获得了研究区玉米的干旱脆弱性曲线。将 MDD 的概率分布与脆弱性曲线相乘并求和，得到多年平均风险。MDD 概率分布曲线表明，陕西中度干旱的概率相对较高，其次是甘肃和宁夏。甘肃的概率分布更为离散。宁夏强气象干旱的概率较高，其次是陕西和甘肃。甘肃玉米相对气象产量的概率分布离散度较高，尾部长厚，不确定性大，极值较多，受气象条件影响较大，其次是陕西和宁夏。以气象干旱为原因，玉米受灾为结果，得到 MDD 与干旱受灾的脆弱性关系。随着 MDD 的增加，玉米的相对气象产量逐渐下降。从平均值来看，当 MDD 小于-2.60 时，玉米的相对气象产量减少了 15%以内；当 MDD 大于-2.60 时，玉米的相对气象产量增加了 10%以内。当气象干旱程度超过-2.2 时，陕西玉米对干旱最脆弱，其次是宁夏和甘肃。当气象干旱程度小于-2.2 时，陕西玉米对干旱最脆弱，其次是甘肃和宁夏。甘肃、宁夏和陕西的相对气象产量的预期值分别为 1.36%、2.48%和-1.76%；因此，陕西玉米的干旱风险最高，其次是甘肃和宁夏。本研究具有明确的物理背景和清晰的风险内涵。研究结果为研究区玉米的干旱灾害减灾提供了数据基础和理论依据。
