Steinhoff Daniel F, Monaghan Andrew J, Eisen Lars, Barlage Michael J, Hopson Thomas M, Tarakidzwa Isaac, Ortiz-Rosario Karielys, Lozano-Fuentes Saul, Hayden Mary H, Bieringer Paul E, Welsh Rodríguez Carlos M
Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado.
Science and Technology in Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado.
Earth Interact. 2016 Dec;20. doi: 10.1175/EI-D-15-0048.1. Epub 2016 Dec 7.
The mosquito virus vector () exploits a wide range of containers as sites for egg laying and development of the immature life stages, yet the approaches for modeling meteorologically sensitive container water dynamics have been limited. This study introduces the Water Height and Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH'EM), a state-of-the-science, physically based energy balance model of water height and temperature in containers that may serve as development sites for mosquitoes. The authors employ WHATCH'EM to model container water dynamics in three cities along a climatic gradient in México ranging from sea level, where is highly abundant, to ~2100 m, where is rarely found. When compared with measurements from a 1-month field experiment in two of these cities during summer 2013, WHATCH'EM realistically simulates the daily mean and range of water temperature for a variety of containers. To examine container dynamics for an entire season, WHATCH'EM is also driven with field-derived meteorological data from May to September 2011 and evaluated for three commonly encountered container types. WHATCH'EM simulates the highly nonlinear manner in which air temperature, humidity, rainfall, clouds, and container characteristics (shape, size, and color) determine water temperature and height. Sunlight exposure, modulated by clouds and shading from nearby objects, plays a first-order role. In general, simulated water temperatures are higher for containers that are larger, darker, and receive more sunlight. WHATCH'EM simulations will be helpful in understanding the limiting meteorological and container-related factors for proliferation of and may be useful for informing weather-driven early warning systems for viruses transmitted by .
蚊媒病毒载体（）利用多种容器作为产卵和未成熟生命阶段发育的场所，但模拟对气象敏感的容器水动力学的方法一直有限。本研究引入了容器栖息地水高与温度能量模型（WHATCH'EM），这是一种基于科学、基于物理的能量平衡模型，用于模拟可能作为蚊子发育场所的容器中的水高和温度。作者利用WHATCH'EM对墨西哥沿气候梯度的三个城市的容器水动力学进行建模，范围从海平面（那里 非常丰富）到约2100米（那里很少发现）。与2013年夏季在其中两个城市进行的为期1个月的实地实验测量结果相比，WHATCH'EM逼真地模拟了各种容器水温的日均值和范围。为了研究整个季节的容器动态，WHATCH'EM还采用了2011年5月至9月实地获取的气象数据进行驱动，并针对三种常见的容器类型进行了评估。WHATCH'EM模拟了气温、湿度、降雨、云层和容器特征（形状、大小和颜色）决定水温与水高的高度非线性方式。由云层和附近物体的遮挡调节的阳光照射起着首要作用。一般来说，对于更大、颜色更深且接受更多阳光的容器，模拟水温更高。WHATCH'EM模拟将有助于理解 繁殖的限制气象和与容器相关的因素，可能有助于为 传播病毒的天气驱动预警系统提供信息。
