J Med Entomol. 2014 May;51(3):496-516. doi: 10.1603/me13214.
The mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.), which occurs widely in the subtropics and tropics, is the primary urban vector of dengue and yellow fever viruses, and an important vector of chikungunya virus. There is substantial interest in how climate change may impact the bionomics and pathogen transmission potential of this mosquito. This Forum article focuses specifically on the effects of temperature on the bionomics of Ae. aegypti, with special emphasis on the cool geographic range margins where future rising temperatures could facilitate population growth. Key aims are to: 1) broadly define intra-annual (seasonal) patterns of occurrence and abundance of Ae. aegypti, and their relation to climate conditions; 2) synthesize the existing quantitative knowledge of how temperature impacts the bionomics of different life stages of Ae. aegypti; 3) better define the temperature ranges for which existing population dynamics models for Ae. aegypti are likely to produce robust predictions; 4) explore potential impacts of climate warming on human risk for exposure to Ae. aegypti at its cool range margins; and 5) identify knowledge or data gaps that hinder our ability to predict risk of human exposure to Ae. aegypti at the cool margins of its geographic range now and in the future. We first outline basic scenarios for intra-annual occurrence and abundance patterns for Ae. aegypti, and then show that these scenarios segregate with regard to climate conditions in selected cities where they occur. We then review how near-constant and intentionally fluctuating temperatures impact development times and survival of eggs and immatures. A subset of data, generated in controlled experimental studies, from the published literature is used to plot development rates and survival of eggs, larvae, and pupae in relation to water temperature. The general shape of the relationship between water temperature and development rate is similar for eggs, larvae, and pupae. Once the lower developmental zero temperature (10-14 degrees C) is exceeded, there is a near-linear relationship up to 30 degrees C. Above this temperature, the development rate is relatively stable or even decreases slightly before falling dramatically near the upper developmental zero temperature, which occurs at -38-42 degrees C. Based on life stage-specific linear relationships between water temperature and development rate in the 15-28 degrees C range, the lower developmental zero temperature is estimated to be 14.0 degrees C for eggs, 11.8 degrees C for larvae, and 10.3 degrees C for pupae. We further conclude that available population dynamics models for Ae. aegypti, such as CIMSiM and Skeeter Buster, likely produce robust predictions based on water temperatures in the 16-35 degrees C range, which includes the geographic areas where Ae. aegypti and its associated pathogens present the greatest threat to human health, but that they may be less reliable in cool range margins where water temperatures regularly fall below 15 degrees C. Finally, we identify knowledge or data gaps that hinder our ability to predict risk of human exposure to Ae. aegypti at the cool margins of its range, now and in the future, based on impacts on mosquito population dynamics of temperature and other important factors, such as water nutrient content, larval density, presence of biological competitors, and human behavior.
蚊子 Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) 广泛分布于亚热带和热带地区,是登革热和黄热病病毒的主要城市传播媒介,也是基孔肯雅热病毒的重要传播媒介。人们对气候变化如何影响这种蚊子的生物学特性和病原体传播潜力非常感兴趣。本文主要关注温度对埃及伊蚊生物学特性的影响,特别强调未来温度升高可能促进种群增长的凉爽地理范围边缘。主要目标是:1)广泛定义埃及伊蚊年内(季节性)发生和丰度的模式及其与气候条件的关系;2)综合现有的关于温度如何影响埃及伊蚊不同生命阶段生物学特性的定量知识;3)更好地定义现有埃及伊蚊种群动态模型可能产生可靠预测的温度范围;4)探索气候变暖对人类在其凉爽边缘地区接触埃及伊蚊风险的潜在影响;5)确定阻碍我们预测现在和未来埃及伊蚊地理范围凉爽边缘地区人类接触风险的知识或数据差距。我们首先概述埃及伊蚊年内发生和丰度模式的基本情景,然后表明这些情景根据发生地的气候条件进行了分类。然后,我们回顾了近恒定和有意波动的温度如何影响卵和若虫的发育时间和存活率。从已发表文献中的受控实验研究中生成的一部分数据用于绘制与水温度有关的卵、幼虫和蛹的发育率和存活率。水温和发育率之间的关系的一般形状对于卵、幼虫和蛹是相似的。一旦超过下限发育零温度(10-14°C),就会出现接近线性的关系,直到 30°C。在这个温度以上,发育率相对稳定,甚至在接近上限发育零温度(-38-42°C)之前略有下降。根据水温和发育率在 15-28°C 范围内的特定生命阶段的线性关系,下限发育零温度估计为卵 14.0°C,幼虫 11.8°C,蛹 10.3°C。我们进一步得出结论,埃及伊蚊的现有种群动态模型,如 CIMSiM 和 Skeeter Buster,可能会根据 16-35°C 范围内的水温和其他重要因素(如水体营养成分、幼虫密度、生物竞争存在)产生可靠的预测,这包括埃及伊蚊及其相关病原体对人类健康构成最大威胁的地理区域,但在水经常低于 15°C 的凉爽范围边缘,它们可能不太可靠。最后,我们确定了阻碍我们根据温度和其他重要因素(如水体营养成分、幼虫密度、生物竞争存在和人类行为)对埃及伊蚊在其范围凉爽边缘的人类接触风险进行预测的知识或数据差距。