Zeng Jie, Zhang Xuehai, Yang Jun, Bao Junzhe, Xiang Hao, Dear Keith, Liu Qiyong, Lin Shao, Lawrence Wayne R, Lin Aihua, Huang Cunrui
School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2017 Nov 14;14(11):1383. doi: 10.3390/ijerph14111383.
: The evidence of increased mortality attributable to extreme temperatures is widely characterized in climate-health studies. However, few of these studies have examined the role of humidity on temperature-mortality association. We investigated the joint effect between temperature and humidity on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in Zhejiang Province, China. : We collected data on daily meteorological and CVD mortality from 11 cities in Zhejiang Province during 2010-2013. We first applied time-series Poisson regression analysis within the framework of distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the city-specific effect of temperature and humidity on CVD mortality, after controlling for temporal trends and potential confounding variables. We then applied a multivariate meta-analytical model to pool the effect estimates in the 11 cities to generate an overall provincial estimate. The joint effects between them were calculated by the attributable fraction (AF). The analyses were further stratified by gender, age group, education level, and location of cities. : In total, 120,544 CVD deaths were recorded in this study. The mean values of temperature and humidity were 17.6 °C and 72.3%. The joint effect between low temperature and high humidity had the greatest impact on the CVD death burden over a lag of 0-21 days with a significant AF of 31.36% (95% eCI: 14.79-38.41%), while in a condition of low temperature and low humidity with a significant AF of 16.74% (95% eCI: 0.89, 24.44). The AFs were higher at low temperature and high humidity in different subgroups. When considering the levels of humidity, the AFs were significant at low temperature and high humidity for males, youth, those with a low level of education, and coastal area people. : The combination of low temperature and high humidity had the greatest impact on the CVD death burden in Zhejiang Province. This evidence has important implications for developing CVD interventions.
极端温度导致死亡率上升的证据在气候与健康研究中得到广泛描述。然而,这些研究中很少有考察湿度在温度与死亡率关联中的作用。我们调查了温度和湿度对中国浙江省心血管疾病(CVD)死亡率的联合影响。
我们收集了2010 - 2013年浙江省11个城市的每日气象数据和CVD死亡率数据。我们首先在分布滞后非线性模型框架内应用时间序列泊松回归分析,在控制时间趋势和潜在混杂变量后,估计温度和湿度对CVD死亡率的城市特定影响。然后我们应用多元荟萃分析模型汇总11个城市的效应估计值,以生成全省总体估计值。它们之间的联合效应通过归因分数(AF)计算。分析进一步按性别、年龄组、教育水平和城市位置进行分层。
本研究共记录了120,544例CVD死亡病例。温度和湿度的平均值分别为17.6℃和72.3%。低温高湿的联合效应在滞后0 - 21天对CVD死亡负担影响最大,显著归因分数为31.36%(95% eCI:14.79 - 38.41%),而在低温低湿条件下显著归因分数为16.74%(95% eCI:0.89,24.44)。不同亚组中低温高湿时的归因分数更高。考虑湿度水平时,男性、年轻人、低教育水平人群和沿海地区人群在低温高湿时归因分数显著。
低温高湿的组合对浙江省的CVD死亡负担影响最大。这一证据对制定CVD干预措施具有重要意义。