Boyd Douglas D
Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017 Dec 1;88(12):1066-1072. doi: 10.3357/AMHP.4932.2017.
General aviation (comprised mainly of noncommercial, light aircraft) accounts for 94% of civil aviation fatalities in the United States. Although thunderstorms are hazardous to light aircraft, little research has been undertaken on in-flight pilot decision-making regarding their avoidance. The study objectives were: 1) to determine if the thunderstorm accident rate has declined over the last two decades; and 2) assess in-flight (enroute/landing) airman decision-making regarding adherence to FAA separation minima from thunderstorms.
Thunderstorm-related accidents were identified from the NTSB database. To determine en route/arriving aircraft real-time thunderstorm proximity/relative position and airplane location, using a flight-tracking (Flight Aware®) website, were overlaid on a graphical weather image. Statistics employed Poisson and Chi-squared analyses.
The thunderstorm-related accident rate was undiminished over the 1996-2014 period. In a prospective analysis the majority (enroute 77%, landing 93%) of flights violated the FAA-recommended separation distance from extreme convection. Of these, 79 and 69% (en route and landing, respectively) selected a route downwind of the thunderstorm rather than a less hazardous upwind flight path. Using a mathematical product of binary (separation distance, relative aircraft-thunderstorm position) and nominal (thunderstorm-free egress area) parameters, airmen were more likely to operate in the thunderstorm hazard zone for landings than en route operations.
The thunderstorm-related accident rate, carrying a 70% fatality rate, remains unabated, largely reflecting nonadherence to the FAA-recommended separation minima and selection of a more hazardous route (downwind) for circumnavigation of extreme convective weather. These findings argue for additional emphasis in ab initio pilot training/recurrency on thunderstorm hazards and safe practices (separation distance and flight path).Boyd DD. In-flight decision-making by general aviation pilots operating in areas of extreme thunderstorms. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(12):1066-1072.
通用航空（主要由非商业性轻型飞机组成）占美国民航死亡人数的94%。尽管雷暴对轻型飞机有危害，但关于飞行中飞行员避免雷暴的决策研究却很少。研究目标如下：1）确定雷暴事故率在过去二十年中是否有所下降；2）评估飞行中（航线/着陆阶段）飞行员关于遵守美国联邦航空管理局（FAA）规定的与雷暴最小间隔距离的决策情况。
从美国国家运输安全委员会（NTSB）数据库中识别与雷暴相关的事故。为确定航线/进近飞机与雷暴的实时接近程度/相对位置以及飞机位置，利用一个飞行跟踪（Flight Aware®）网站，并将其叠加在一张图形化天气图像上。统计分析采用泊松分析和卡方分析。
在1996 - 2014年期间，与雷暴相关的事故率并未降低。在一项前瞻性分析中，大多数航班（航线阶段为77%，着陆阶段为93%）违反了美国联邦航空管理局建议的与极端对流的间隔距离。其中，分别有79%和69%（航线阶段和着陆阶段）的航班选择了雷暴顺风方向的航线，而不是危险性较小的逆风飞行路径。通过二元（间隔距离、飞机与雷暴的相对位置）和名义（无雷暴出口区域）参数的数学乘积分析发现，与航线飞行相比，飞行员在着陆时更有可能在雷暴危险区域操作。
与雷暴相关的事故率（死亡率达70%）依然居高不下，这在很大程度上反映出飞行员未遵守美国联邦航空管理局建议的最小间隔距离，以及选择了更危险的航线（顺风）来绕过极端对流天气。这些发现表明，在初始飞行员培训/复训中应进一步强调雷暴危害及安全操作（间隔距离和飞行路径）。博伊德·D·D。通用航空飞行员在极端雷暴区域飞行时的飞行决策。《航空航天医学与人类表现》。2017年；88(12):1066 - 1072。
