University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
J Safety Res. 2024 Feb;88:336-343. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2023.11.020. Epub 2023 Dec 20.
Continuing flight into adverse weather remains a significant problem in general aviation (GA) safety. A variety of experiential, cognitive, and motivational factors have been suggested as explanations. Previous research has shown that adverse weather accidents occur further into planned flights than other types of accident, suggesting that previous investment of time and effort might be a contributing factor. The aim of this study was to experimentally determine the effect of prior commitment on general aviation pilots' decision-making and risk-taking in simulated VFR flights.
Thirty-six licensed pilots 'flew' two simulated flights designed to simulate an encounter with deteriorating coastal weather and a developing extensive cloud base underneath the aircraft as it crossed a mountain range. After making a decision to continue or discontinue the flight, pilots completed a range of risk perception, risk taking, and situational awareness measures.
Visual flight rules were violated in 42% of the flights. Prior commitment, in terms of distance already flown, led to an increased tendency to continue the flight into adverse weather in the coastal 'scud running' scenario. Continuing pilots perceived the risks differently and showed greater risk tolerance than others. These 'bolder' pilots also tended to be more active and better qualified than the others.
There are undoubtedly multiple factors underlying any individual decision to continue or discontinue a flight. The willingness to tolerate a higher level of risk seems to be one such factor. This willingness can increase with time invested in the flight and also seems to be related to individual flight qualifications and experience.
All pilots might benefit from carefully structured simulator sessions designed to safely teach practical risk management strategies with clear and immediate feedback.
持续在恶劣天气中飞行仍然是通用航空（GA）安全的一个重大问题。各种经验、认知和动机因素被认为是解释原因。先前的研究表明，恶劣天气事故发生在计划飞行之外，比其他类型的事故更远，这表明之前投入的时间和精力可能是一个促成因素。本研究的目的是通过实验确定先前的承诺对通用航空飞行员在模拟视觉飞行规则（VFR）飞行中的决策和冒险行为的影响。
36 名持照飞行员“飞行”了两次模拟飞行，旨在模拟在沿海地区遇到恶劣天气以及当飞机飞越山脉时飞机下方的云层不断扩展的情况。飞行员在做出继续或中断飞行的决定后，完成了一系列风险感知、冒险和情境意识的测量。
42%的飞行违反了目视飞行规则。就已经飞行的距离而言，先前的承诺导致在沿海“低云飞行”场景中继续飞行进入恶劣天气的趋势增加。继续飞行的飞行员对风险的看法不同，表现出更大的风险容忍度。这些“更大胆”的飞行员也往往比其他人更活跃和更有资格。
毫无疑问，任何个人决定继续或中断飞行都有多个因素。愿意容忍更高水平的风险似乎是其中一个因素。这种意愿随着飞行时间的增加而增加，并且似乎与个人飞行资格和经验有关。
所有飞行员都可能从精心设计的模拟器课程中受益，这些课程旨在安全地教授实用的风险管理策略，并提供明确和即时的反馈。
