Melo Alice Cristina Medeiros, Silva Gabriela Drummond Marques da, Garcia Leila Posenato
Programa de Pós-graduação em Saúde Coletiva, Universidade de Brasília, Brasília, Brasil.
Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Brasília, Brasil.
Cad Saude Publica. 2017 Nov 21;33(11):e00168316. doi: 10.1590/0102-311X00168316.
The aim was to analyze the association between risk of death from assault in young males and socio-demographic characteristics in Brazilian municipalities. In this ecological study, the units of analysis were the 1,651 municipalities of Brazil with more than 20,000 inhabitants. Data were obtained from the Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM) and indicators were obtained from the 2010 Population Census and Human Development Atlas. Mortality rate ratios were estimated by a negative binomial regression model. From 2010 to 2014, a total of 127,137 deaths from assault were reported in young males 15 to 29 years of age. Corrected mortality rate was 133.3/100 thousand inhabitants for the set of municipalities (median 71.5/100 thousand inhabitants). The rate increased with the municipalities' population size. In the adjusted model, higher rates ratios were observed in the more urbanized municipalities (1.95; 95%CI: 1.70-2.23), in intermediate categories of income inequality (1.10; 95%CI: 1.01-1.20) and poverty rate (1.69; 95%CI: 1.51-1.89), with lower proportion of youth attending Secondary School (2.05; 95%CI: 1.83-2.30), with higher proportion of unemployed youth 18 to 24 years of age (1.27; 95%CI: 1.16-1.40), and with more women than men (1.28; 95%CI: 1.05-1.58). Mortality from assault was high in young Brazilian men, especially in larger and more urbanized municipalities and those with a higher proportion of youth looking for work and not attending secondary school. The results show the relevance of social policies for dealing with violence against youth.
目的是分析巴西各城市年轻男性因暴力袭击导致的死亡风险与社会人口特征之间的关联。在这项生态研究中，分析单位是巴西1651个居民超过2万的城市。数据来自巴西死亡率信息系统（SIM），指标来自2010年人口普查和人类发展地图集。死亡率比值通过负二项回归模型估计。2010年至2014年，15至29岁的年轻男性中共有127137例因暴力袭击死亡。这些城市的校正死亡率为每10万居民133.3例（中位数为每10万居民71.5例）。死亡率随城市人口规模增加而上升。在调整模型中，城市化程度较高的城市（1.95；95%置信区间：1.70 - 2.23）、收入不平等处于中等水平的城市（1.10；95%置信区间：1.01 - 1.20）以及贫困率较高的城市（1.69；95%置信区间：1.51 - 1.89）的死亡率比值更高，中学入学青年比例较低的城市（2.05；95%置信区间：1.83 - 2.30）、18至24岁失业青年比例较高的城市（1.27；95%置信区间：1.16 - 1.40）以及女性多于男性的城市（1.28；95%置信区间：1.05 - 1.58）的死亡率比值也更高。巴西年轻男性因暴力袭击导致的死亡率很高，尤其是在规模较大、城市化程度较高以及青年找工作比例高且未上中学的城市。结果表明社会政策在应对针对青年的暴力行为方面具有重要意义。
