Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto de Medicina Social, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Rev Saude Publica. 2009 Oct;43(5):733-42. doi: 10.1590/s0034-89102009000500001.
To assess a new impunity index and variables that have been found to predict variation in homicide rates in other geographical levels as predictive of state-level homicide rates in Brazil.
This was a cross-sectional ecological study. Data from the mortality information system relating to the 27 Brazilian states for the years 1996 to 2005 were analyzed. The outcome variables were taken to be homicide victim rates in 2005, for the entire population and for men aged 20-29 years. Measurements of economic and social development, economic inequality, demographic structure and life expectancy were analyzed as predictors. An 'impunity index', calculated as the total number of homicides between 1996 and 2005 divided by the number of individuals in prison in 2007, was constructed. The data were analyzed by means of simple linear regression and negative binomial regression.
In 2005, state-level crude total homicide rates ranged from 11 to 51 per 100,000; for young men, they ranged from 39 to 241. The impunity index ranged from 0.4 to 3.5 and was the most important predictor of this variability. From negative binomial regression, it was estimated that the homicide victim rate among young males increased by 50% for every increase of one point in this ratio.
Classic predictive factors were not associated with homicides in this analysis of state-level variation in Brazil. However, the impunity index indicated that the greater the impunity, the higher the homicide rate.
评估一个新的免责指数和一些已被发现可以预测其他地理层面的凶杀率变化的变量，以预测巴西州级凶杀率。
这是一项横断面生态研究。分析了 1996 年至 2005 年期间与巴西 27 个州的死亡率信息系统相关的数据。结果变量是 2005 年的凶杀受害者率，包括总人口和 20-29 岁男性。分析了经济和社会发展、经济不平等、人口结构和预期寿命等预测因素。构建了一个“免责指数”，即 1996 年至 2005 年期间的总凶杀案数除以 2007 年监狱中人数。通过简单线性回归和负二项回归分析数据。
2005 年，州级总凶杀率从每 10 万人 11 至 51 例不等；对于年轻男性，范围从每 10 万人 39 至 241 例不等。免责指数从 0.4 到 3.5，是这种变异性的最重要预测因素。从负二项回归中估计，每增加一分这个比值，年轻男性的凶杀受害者率就会增加 50%。
在对巴西州级变化的分析中，经典的预测因素与凶杀案无关。然而，免责指数表明，免责程度越高，凶杀率越高。
