National Centre for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of Health, Monforte de Lemos 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain.
Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública-CIBERESP), Monforte de Lemos 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2017 Nov 28;14(12):1469. doi: 10.3390/ijerph14121469.
The spatio-temporal distribution of influenza is linked to variations in meteorological factors, like temperature, absolute humidity, or the amount of rainfall. The aim of this study was to analyse the association between influenza activity, and meteorological variables in Spain, across five influenza seasons: 2010-2011 through to 2014-2015 using generalized linear negative binomial mixed models that we calculated the weekly influenza proxies, defined as the weekly influenza-like illness rates, multiplied by the weekly proportion of respiratory specimens that tested positive for influenza. The results showed an association between influenza transmission and dew point and cumulative precipitation. In increase in the dew point temperature of 5 degrees produces a 7% decrease in the Weekly Influenza Proxy (RR 0.928, IC: 0.891-0.966), and while an increase of 10 mm in weekly rainfall equates to a 17% increase in the Weekly Influenza Proxy (RR 1.172, IC: 1.097-1.251). Influenza transmission in Spain is influenced by variations in meteorological variables as temperature, absolute humidity, or the amount of rainfall.
流感的时空分布与气象因素（如温度、绝对湿度或降雨量）的变化有关。本研究旨在分析西班牙五个流感季节（2010-2011 年至 2014-2015 年）中流感活动与气象变量之间的关联，使用广义线性负二项式混合模型计算每周流感替代指标，定义为每周流感样疾病发病率乘以每周流感检测呈阳性的呼吸道标本比例。结果表明，流感传播与露点温度和累积降水量之间存在关联。露点温度升高 5 度会导致每周流感替代指标降低 7%（RR 0.928，IC：0.891-0.966），而每周降雨量增加 10 毫米会导致每周流感替代指标增加 17%（RR 1.172，IC：1.097-1.251）。西班牙的流感传播受到气象变量（如温度、绝对湿度或降雨量）变化的影响。
