School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, 100875, Beijing, China.
Center for Polymer Studies and Physics Department, Boston University, Boston, MA, 02215, USA.
Nat Commun. 2017 Nov 28;8(1):1841. doi: 10.1038/s41467-017-01882-w.
Although most of wealth and innovation have been the result of human interaction and cooperation, we are not yet able to quantitatively predict the spatial distributions of three main elements of cities: population, roads, and socioeconomic interactions. By a simple model mainly based on spatial attraction and matching growth mechanisms, we reveal that the spatial scaling rules of these three elements are in a consistent framework, which allows us to use any single observation to infer the others. All numerical and theoretical results are consistent with empirical data from ten representative cities. In addition, our model can also provide a general explanation of the origins of the universal super- and sub-linear aggregate scaling laws and accurately predict kilometre-level socioeconomic activity. Our work opens a new avenue for uncovering the evolution of cities in terms of the interplay among urban elements, and it has a broad range of applications.
尽管大部分财富和创新都是人类互动和合作的结果,但我们仍然无法定量预测城市的三个主要元素:人口、道路和社会经济互动的空间分布。通过一个主要基于空间吸引力和匹配增长机制的简单模型,我们揭示了这三个要素的空间标度规则处于一致的框架内,这使我们能够使用任何单个观察结果来推断其他观察结果。所有的数值和理论结果都与来自十个代表性城市的经验数据一致。此外,我们的模型还可以为普遍的超线性和次线性聚合标度规律的起源提供一个通用的解释,并准确预测公里级别的社会经济活动。我们的工作为揭示城市要素之间相互作用的城市演化开辟了一条新途径,具有广泛的应用前景。