Bokányi Eszter, Szállási Zoltán, Vattay Gábor
Department of Physics of Complex Systems, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary.
Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2018 Feb 22;13(2):e0192913. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0192913. eCollection 2018.
We explain the anomaly of election results between large cities and rural areas in terms of urban scaling in the 1948-2016 US elections and in the 2016 EU referendum of the UK. The scaling curves are all universal and depend on a single parameter only, and one of the parties always shows superlinear scaling and drives the process, while the sublinear exponent of the other party is merely the consequence of probability conservation. Based on the recently developed model of urban scaling, we give a microscopic model of voter behavior in which we replace diversity characterizing humans in creative aspects with social diversity and tolerance. The model can also predict new political developments such as the fragmentation of the left and the immigration paradox.
我们依据1948 - 2016年美国选举以及2016年英国脱欧公投中的城市规模效应，解释了大城市与农村地区选举结果的异常现象。规模曲线都是通用的，且仅依赖于一个参数，其中一个政党总是呈现超线性规模效应并主导这一过程，而另一个政党的亚线性指数仅仅是概率守恒的结果。基于最近发展起来的城市规模效应模型，我们给出了一个选民行为的微观模型，在该模型中，我们用社会多样性和宽容度取代了人类在创造性方面的多样性。该模型还能够预测新的政治发展趋势，比如左派的分裂以及移民悖论。
