Van Abel Nicole, Mans Janet, Taylor Maureen B
Department of Medical Virology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X323, 0007 Arcadia, Pretoria, South Africa E-mail:
J Water Health. 2017 Oct;15(6):908-922. doi: 10.2166/wh.2017.305.
This study assessed the risks posed by noroviruses (NoVs) in surface water used for drinking, domestic, and recreational purposes in South Africa (SA), using a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) methodology that took a probabilistic approach coupling an exposure assessment with four dose-response models to account for uncertainty. Water samples from three rivers were found to be contaminated with NoV GI (80-1,900 gc/L) and GII (420-9,760 gc/L) leading to risk estimates that were lower for GI than GII. The volume of water consumed and the probabilities of infection were lower for domestic (2.91 × 10 to 5.19 × 10) than drinking water exposures (1.04 × 10 to 7.24 × 10). The annual probabilities of illness varied depending on the type of recreational water exposure with boating (3.91 × 10 to 5.43 × 10) and swimming (6.20 × 10 to 6.42 × 10) being slightly greater than playing next to/in the river (5.30 × 10 to 5.48 × 10). The QMRA was sensitive to the choice of dose-response model. The risk of NoV infection or illness from contaminated surface water is extremely high in SA, especially for lower socioeconomic individuals, but is similar to reported risks from limited international studies.
本研究采用定量微生物风险评估（QMRA）方法，以概率方法将暴露评估与四个剂量反应模型相结合以考虑不确定性，评估了南非用于饮用、家庭和娱乐目的的地表水中诺如病毒（NoVs）带来的风险。发现三条河流的水样被诺如病毒GI（80 - 1,900基因组拷贝/升）和GII（420 - 9,760基因组拷贝/升）污染，导致GI的风险估计低于GII。家庭用水暴露（2.91×10至5.19×10）的用水量和感染概率低于饮用水暴露（1.04×10至7.24×10）。每年的发病概率因娱乐用水暴露类型而异，划船（3.91×10至5.43×10）和游泳（6.20×10至6.42×10）时的发病概率略高于在河边玩耍/河中玩耍（5.30×10至5.48×10）。QMRA对剂量反应模型的选择敏感。在南非，受污染地表水导致诺如病毒感染或发病的风险极高，尤其是对社会经济地位较低的人群，但与有限的国际研究报告的风险相似。
