Department of Anthropology, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame IN 46556;
Department of Anthropology, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC 28608.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Dec 26;114(52):E11101-E11110. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1713972114. Epub 2017 Dec 11.
The proportions of individuals involved in intergroup coalitional conflict, measured by war group size (W), conflict casualties (C), and overall group conflict deaths (G), have declined with respect to growing populations, implying that states are less violent than small-scale societies. We argue that these trends are better explained by scaling laws shared by both past and contemporary societies regardless of social organization, where group population (P) directly determines W and indirectly determines C and G. W is shown to be a power law function of P with scaling exponent X [demographic conflict investment (DCI)]. C is shown to be a power law function of W with scaling exponent Y [conflict lethality (CL)]. G is shown to be a power law function of P with scaling exponent Z [group conflict mortality (GCM)]. Results show that, while W/P and G/P decrease as expected with increasing P, C/W increases with growing W. Small-scale societies show higher but more variance in DCI and CL than contemporary states. We find no significant differences in DCI or CL between small-scale societies and contemporary states undergoing drafts or conflict, after accounting for variance and scale. We calculate relative measures of DCI and CL applicable to all societies that can be tracked over time for one or multiple actors. In light of the recent global emergence of populist, nationalist, and sectarian violence, our comparison-focused approach to DCI and CL will enable better models and analysis of the landscapes of violence in the 21st century.
参与群体间冲突的个体比例，通过战争群体规模 (W)、冲突伤亡 (C) 和总体群体冲突死亡 (G) 来衡量，随着人口的增长而下降，这表明国家的暴力程度低于小规模社会。我们认为，这些趋势可以通过过去和当代社会都存在的规模法则来更好地解释，而不管社会组织如何，其中群体人口 (P) 直接决定 W，间接决定 C 和 G。研究表明，W 是 P 的幂律函数，其标度指数为 X [人口冲突投资 (DCI)]。C 是 W 的幂律函数，其标度指数为 Y [冲突致命性 (CL)]。G 是 P 的幂律函数，其标度指数为 Z [群体冲突死亡率 (GCM)]。结果表明，虽然 W/P 和 G/P 随着 P 的增加而预期下降，但 C/W 随着 W 的增加而增加。小规模社会的 DCI 和 CL 虽然高于当代国家，但差异更大。在考虑了方差和规模之后，我们发现，无论是在进行征兵或冲突的小规模社会还是当代国家，DCI 或 CL 都没有显著差异。我们计算了适用于所有社会的 DCI 和 CL 的相对度量，这些度量可以随着时间的推移对一个或多个参与者进行跟踪。鉴于最近民粹主义、民族主义和宗派暴力在全球的出现，我们对 DCI 和 CL 的比较方法将能够更好地为 21 世纪的暴力景观建模和分析。
