RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, 7-1-26 Minatojima-minami-machi, Chuo-ku, Kobe, 650-0047, Japan.
Research Center for Urban Safety and Security, Kobe University, 1-1 Rokkodai, Nada-ku, Kobe, 657-8501, Japan.
Nat Commun. 2017 Dec 20;8(1):2224. doi: 10.1038/s41467-017-02360-z.
Future changes in large-scale climatology and perturbation may have different impacts on regional climate change. It is important to understand the impacts of climatology and perturbation in terms of both thermodynamic and dynamic changes. Although many studies have investigated the influence of climatology changes on regional climate, the significance of perturbation changes is still debated. The nonlinear effect of these two changes is also unknown. We propose a systematic procedure that extracts the influences of three factors: changes in climatology, changes in perturbation and the resulting nonlinear effect. We then demonstrate the usefulness of the procedure, applying it to future changes in precipitation. All three factors have the same degree of influence, especially for extreme rainfall events. Thus, regional climate assessments should consider not only the climatology change but also the perturbation change and their nonlinearity. This procedure can advance interpretations of future regional climates.
未来大规模气候学和摄动变化可能对区域气候变化产生不同的影响。从热力学和动力学变化的角度了解气候学和摄动变化的影响非常重要。尽管许多研究已经调查了气候学变化对区域气候的影响，但摄动变化的意义仍存在争议。这两种变化的非线性效应也未知。我们提出了一种系统的程序，该程序可以提取三个因素的影响：气候学变化、摄动变化以及由此产生的非线性效应。然后，我们通过将其应用于降水的未来变化，展示了该程序的有用性。这三个因素的影响程度相同，特别是对于极端降雨事件。因此，区域气候评估不仅应考虑气候学变化，还应考虑摄动变化及其非线性。该程序可以促进对未来区域气候的解释。
