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乳腺 X 光筛查:医学中的一个重大问题。

Mammography screening: A major issue in medicine.

机构信息

University of Strathclyde Institute of Global Public Health at IPRI, International Prevention Research Institute, Espace Européen, Building G, Allée Claude Debussy, 69130 Ecully Lyon, France; International Prevention Research Institute (iPRI), 95 Cours Lafayette, 69006 Lyon, France.

University of Strathclyde Institute of Global Public Health at IPRI, International Prevention Research Institute, Espace Européen, Building G, Allée Claude Debussy, 69130 Ecully Lyon, France; International Prevention Research Institute (iPRI), 95 Cours Lafayette, 69006 Lyon, France.

出版信息

Eur J Cancer. 2018 Feb;90:34-62. doi: 10.1016/j.ejca.2017.11.002. Epub 2017 Dec 20.


DOI:10.1016/j.ejca.2017.11.002
PMID:29272783
Abstract

Breast cancer mortality is declining in most high-income countries. The role of mammography screening in these declines is much debated. Screening impacts cancer mortality through decreasing the incidence of number of advanced cancers with poor prognosis, while therapies and patient management impact cancer mortality through decreasing the fatality of cancers. The effectiveness of cancer screening is the ability of a screening method to curb the incidence of advanced cancers in populations. Methods for evaluating cancer screening effectiveness are based on the monitoring of age-adjusted incidence rates of advanced cancers that should decrease after the introduction of screening. Likewise, cancer-specific mortality rates should decline more rapidly in areas with screening than in areas without or with lower levels of screening but where patient management is similar. These two criteria have provided evidence that screening for colorectal and cervical cancer contributes to decreasing the mortality associated with these two cancers. In contrast, screening for neuroblastoma in children was discontinued in the early 2000s because these two criteria were not met. In addition, overdiagnosis - i.e. the detection of non-progressing occult neuroblastoma that would not have been life-threatening during the subject's lifetime - is a major undesirable consequence of screening. Accumulating epidemiological data show that in populations where mammography screening has been widespread for a long time, there has been no or only a modest decline in the incidence of advanced cancers, including that of de novo metastatic (stage IV) cancers at diagnosis. Moreover, breast cancer mortality reductions are similar in areas with early introduction and high penetration of screening and in areas with late introduction and low penetration of screening. Overdiagnosis is commonplace, representing 20% or more of all breast cancers among women invited to screening and 30-50% of screen-detected cancers. Overdiagnosis leads to overtreatment and inflicts considerable physical, psychological and economic harm on many women. Overdiagnosis has also exerted considerable disruptive effects on the interpretation of clinical outcomes expressed in percentages (instead of rates) or as overall survival (instead of mortality rates or stage-specific survival). Rates of radical mastectomies have not decreased following the introduction of screening and keep rising in some countries (e.g. the United States of America (USA)). Hence, the epidemiological picture of mammography screening closely resembles that of screening for neuroblastoma. Reappraisals of Swedish mammography trials demonstrate that the design and statistical analysis of these trials were different from those of all trials on screening for cancers other than breast cancer. We found compelling indications that these trials overestimated reductions in breast cancer mortality associated with screening, in part because of the statistical analyses themselves, in part because of improved therapies and underreporting of breast cancer as the underlying cause of death in screening groups. In this regard, Swedish trials should publish the stage-specific breast cancer mortality rates for the screening and control groups separately. Results of the Greater New York Health Insurance Plan trial are biased because of the underreporting of breast cancer cases and deaths that occurred in women who did not participate in screening. After 17 years of follow-up, the United Kingdom (UK) Age Trial showed no benefit from mammography screening starting at age 39-41. Until around 2005, most proponents of breast screening backed the monitoring of changes in advanced cancer incidence and comparative studies on breast cancer mortality for the evaluation of breast screening effectiveness. However, in an attempt to mitigate the contradictions between results of mammography trials and population data, breast-screening proponents have elected to change the criteria for the evaluation of cancer screening effectiveness, giving precedence to incidence-based mortality (IBM) and case-control studies. But practically all IBM studies on mammography screening have a strong ecological component in their design. The two IBM studies done in Norway that meet all methodological requirements do not document significant reductions in breast cancer mortality associated with mammography screening. Because of their propensity to exaggerate the health benefits of screening, case-control studies may demonstrate that mammography screening could reduce the risk of death from diseases other than breast cancer. Numerous statistical model approaches have been conducted for estimating the contributions of screening and of patient management to reductions in breast cancer mortality. Unverified assumptions are needed for running these models. For instance, many models assume that if screening had not occurred, the majority of screen-detected asymptomatic cancers would have progressed to symptomatic advanced cancers. This assumption is not grounded in evidence because a large proportion of screen-detected breast cancers represent overdiagnosis and hence non-progressing tumours. The accumulation of population data in well-screened populations diminishes the relevance of model approaches. The comparison of the performance of different screening modalities - e.g. mammography, digital mammography, ultrasonography, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), three-dimensional tomosynthesis (TDT) - concentrates on detection rates, which is the ability of a technique to detect more cancers than other techniques. However, a greater detection rate tells little about the capacity to prevent interval and advanced cancers and could just reflect additional overdiagnosis. Studies based on the incidence of advanced cancers and on the evaluation of overdiagnosis should be conducted before marketing new breast-imaging technologies. Women at high risk of breast cancer (i.e. 30% lifetime risk and more), such as women with BRCA1/2 mutations, require a close breast surveillance. MRI is the preferred imaging method until more radical risk-reduction options are eventually adopted. For women with an intermediate risk of breast cancer (i.e. 10-29% lifetime risk), including women with extremely dense breast at mammography, there is no evidence that more frequent mammography screening or screening with other modalities actually reduces the risk of breast cancer death. A plethora of epidemiological data shows that, since 1985, progress in the management of breast cancer patients has led to marked reductions in stage-specific breast cancer mortality, even for patients with disseminated disease (i.e. stage IV cancer) at diagnosis. In contrast, the epidemiological data point to a marginal contribution of mammography screening in the decline in breast cancer mortality. Moreover, the more effective the treatments, the less favourable are the harm-benefit balance of screening mammography. New, effective methods for breast screening are needed, as well as research on risk-based screening strategies.

摘要

乳腺癌死亡率在大多数高收入国家呈下降趋势。在这些下降中,乳房 X 线筛查的作用备受争议。筛查通过减少预后不良的晚期癌症的发生率来影响癌症死亡率,而治疗和患者管理则通过降低癌症的致死率来影响癌症死亡率。癌症筛查的有效性是指一种筛查方法减少人群中晚期癌症发生率的能力。评估癌症筛查效果的方法基于对经过筛查后应降低的晚期癌症年龄调整发病率的监测。同样,在有筛查的地区,癌症特异性死亡率应该比没有或筛查水平较低但患者管理相似的地区下降得更快。这两个标准为筛查结直肠癌和宫颈癌有助于降低与这两种癌症相关的死亡率提供了证据。相比之下,由于不符合这两个标准,儿童神经母细胞瘤的筛查已于 21 世纪初停止。此外,过度诊断——即检测到不会在受检者一生中危及生命的非进展性隐匿性神经母细胞瘤——是筛查的一个主要不良后果。不断积累的流行病学数据表明,在长期广泛开展乳房 X 线筛查的人群中,晚期癌症的发病率(包括诊断时新发转移性[IV 期]癌症的发病率)没有或只有适度下降。此外,在早期引入和高普及率的筛查地区与晚期引入和低普及率的筛查地区,乳腺癌死亡率的降低是相似的。过度诊断很常见,在接受筛查的女性中占所有乳腺癌的 20%或更多,在筛查发现的癌症中占 30-50%。过度诊断导致过度治疗,并给许多女性带来相当大的身体、心理和经济伤害。过度诊断还对以百分比(而不是率)表示的临床结果的解释或作为总生存(而不是死亡率或特定阶段生存)产生了相当大的干扰影响。在引入筛查后,乳房切除术的比例并没有下降,在一些国家(如美利坚合众国(USA))仍在上升。因此,乳房 X 线筛查的流行病学情况与神经母细胞瘤的筛查非常相似。对瑞典乳房 X 线筛查试验的重新评估表明,这些试验的设计和统计分析与除乳腺癌以外的癌症筛查的所有试验不同。我们有令人信服的证据表明,这些试验高估了与筛查相关的乳腺癌死亡率降低,部分原因是统计分析本身,部分原因是治疗的改善和在筛查组中乳腺癌作为根本死因的报告不足。在这方面,瑞典试验应分别公布筛查组和对照组的特定阶段乳腺癌死亡率。由于在未参加筛查的女性中乳腺癌病例和死亡的报告不足,瑞典试验的结果存在偏差。在 17 年的随访后,大纽约健康保险计划试验显示,从 39-41 岁开始的乳房 X 线筛查没有益处。在大约 2005 年之前,大多数乳房筛查的支持者支持监测晚期癌症发病率的变化,并对乳腺癌死亡率进行比较研究,以评估乳房筛查的有效性。然而,为了减轻乳房 X 线检查试验结果与人群数据之间的矛盾,乳房筛查的支持者选择改变评估癌症筛查有效性的标准,优先考虑基于发病率的死亡率(IBM)和病例对照研究。但是,实际上,所有关于乳房 X 线筛查的 IBM 研究都在其设计中具有强烈的生态成分。在挪威进行的两项符合所有方法学要求的 IBM 研究并未证明与乳房 X 线筛查相关的乳腺癌死亡率显著降低。由于病例对照研究有夸大筛查益处的倾向,因此可能证明乳房 X 线筛查可以降低乳腺癌以外疾病的死亡风险。为了估计筛查和患者管理对降低乳腺癌死亡率的贡献,已经进行了许多统计模型方法。运行这些模型需要未经证实的假设。例如,许多模型假设如果没有进行筛查,大多数筛查发现的无症状癌症将进展为有症状的晚期癌症。这种假设没有证据支持,因为大量筛查发现的乳腺癌代表过度诊断,因此是非进展性肿瘤。在筛查良好的人群中积累的人群数据降低了模型方法的相关性。不同筛查方式的性能比较——例如乳房 X 线摄影、数字乳房 X 线摄影、超声、磁共振成像(MRI)、三维断层合成(TDT)——集中在检测率上,即一种技术检测到的癌症比其他技术多的能力。然而,更高的检测率并不能说明预防间隔期和晚期癌症的能力,可能只是反映了额外的过度诊断。在开展新的乳房成像技术之前,应开展关于晚期癌症发病率和过度诊断评估的研究。患有乳腺癌高风险(即终生风险 30%及以上)的女性,如携带 BRCA1/2 突变的女性,需要密切进行乳房监测。在采用更激进的风险降低措施之前,MRI 是首选的成像方法。对于乳腺癌风险中等(即 10-29%的终生风险)的女性,包括在乳房 X 线摄影中有致密乳房的女性,没有证据表明更频繁的乳房 X 线筛查或其他方式的筛查实际上降低了乳腺癌死亡的风险。大量的流行病学数据表明,自 1985 年以来,乳腺癌患者管理的进展导致特定阶段乳腺癌死亡率显著降低,即使对于诊断时已经扩散(即 IV 期癌症)的患者也是如此。相比之下,流行病学数据表明乳房 X 线筛查在乳腺癌死亡率下降方面的贡献微不足道。此外,治疗越有效,筛查乳房 X 线摄影的危害-效益平衡就越不利。需要新的、有效的乳房筛查方法,以及基于风险的筛查策略的研究。

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