John Jay College, New York, NY, USA.
New York City Police Department, New York, NY, USA.
J Interpers Violence. 2020 Oct;35(19-20):3986-4012. doi: 10.1177/0886260517712272. Epub 2017 Jun 14.
Violence involving firearms poses a serious threat to public safety in urban areas. The present study examines how illegal firearm availability (IFA) is related to firearm violence at the neighborhood level. We analyzed 3 years (from 2005 to 2007) of recovered firearm and violent index crime data from Newark, New Jersey. Violent index crime is separated into three categories by level of firearm use: shootings, display of firearm violence (DFV), and no-firearm violence (NFV). Negative binominal regression was conducted to examine the relationship between IFA and firearm violence at the neighborhood level while controlling for neighborhood conditions. Firearm violence is prevalent in Newark: over 90% of homicides and 47% of robberies were committed with a firearm. IFA is related to increased shootings and NFV, but not to DFV. IFA is a robust predictor of shootings in Newark, New Jersey. Neighborhood conditions influence IFA and firearm violence. IFA may reflect neighborhood distress level, given that areas with high IFA experience increased firearm violence as well as NFV. The local clustering of violent crime suggests placed-focused policing strategies aimed at removing firearms would aid in curbing serious firearm violence in urban neighborhoods.
枪支暴力对城市地区的公共安全构成严重威胁。本研究考察了非法枪支供应（IFA）与邻里层面枪支暴力的关系。我们分析了新泽西州纽瓦克市 3 年（2005 年至 2007 年）的枪支回收和暴力指数犯罪数据。暴力指数犯罪按使用枪支的程度分为三类：枪击、展示枪支暴力（DFV）和非枪支暴力（NFV）。在控制邻里条件的情况下，我们采用负二项式回归来检验 IFA 与邻里层面枪支暴力之间的关系。纽瓦克市枪支暴力很普遍：超过 90%的凶杀案和 47%的抢劫案是用枪支实施的。IFA 与枪击和 NFV 的增加有关，但与 DFV 无关。IFA 是新泽西州纽瓦克市枪击事件的有力预测指标。邻里条件影响 IFA 和枪支暴力。考虑到 IFA 较高的地区不仅经历了更多的枪支暴力，还经历了 NFV，因此 IFA 可能反映了邻里困境的程度。暴力犯罪的局部集聚表明，以去除枪支为重点的有针对性的警务策略可能有助于遏制城市社区的严重枪支暴力。
