Center for Tropical Research, Institute for the Environment and Sustainability, University of California-Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
Department of Evolution and Ecology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
Science. 2018 Jan 5;359(6371):83-86. doi: 10.1126/science.aan4380.
The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species' responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler (). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts.
由于快速的气候变化导致生物多样性持续丧失，因此需要准确的模型来预测物种的反应。尽管有证据表明进化适应可以减轻气候变化的影响，但进化很少被纳入预测模型中。本研究通过整合种群基因组学和环境数据，确定了迁徙鸣禽黄莺（）繁殖范围内与气候相关的基因组变异。需要最大程度地改变等位基因频率以跟上未来气候变化的种群经历了最大的种群减少，这表明未能适应可能已经对种群产生了负面影响。总的来说，我们的研究表明，整合基因组适应可以提高未来物种分布模型的准确性，并最终指导更有效的缓解努力。
