Wu Xing, Bellagio Tatiana, Peng Yunru, Czech Lucas, Lin Meixi, Lang Patricia, Epstein Ruth, Abdelaziz Mohamed, Alexander Jake, Caton-Darby Mireille, Alonso-Blanco Carlos, Andersen Heidi Lie, Berbel Modesto, Bergelson Joy, Burghardt Liana, Delker Carolin, Dimitrakopoulos Panayiotis G, Donohue Kathleen, Durka Walter, Escribano-Avila Gema, Franks Steven J, Fritschi Felix B, Galanidis Alexandros, Garcia-Fernández Alfredo, García-Muñoz Ana, Hamann Elena, Herber Martijn, Hutt Allison, Iriondo José M, Juenger Thomas E, Keller Stephen, Koehl Karin, Korte Arthur, Korte Pamela, Kuschera Alexander, Lara-Romero Carlos, Leventhal Laura, Maag Daniel, Marcer Arnald, March-Salas Martí, de Meaux Juliette, Méndez-Vigo Belén, Morente-López Javier, Morton Timothy C, Münzbergova Zuzana, Muola Anne, Pärtel Meelis, Picó F Xavier, Quarles-Chidyagwai Brandie, Quint Marcel, Reichelt Niklas, Rudak Agnieszka, Schmitt Johanna, Seifan Merav, Snoek Basten L, Stam Remco, Stinchcombe John R, Stift Marc, Taylor Mark A, Tiffin Peter, Till-Bottraud Irène, Traveset Anna, Valay Jean-Gabriel, van Zanten Martijn, Vandvik Vigdis, Violle Cyrille, Wódkiewicz Maciej, Weigel Detlef, Bossdorf Oliver, Colautti Robert, Vasseur François, Scheepens J F, Exposito-Alonso Moises
Department of Integrative Biology, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley 94720, CA, USA.
Howard Hughes Medical Institute, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley 94720, CA, USA.
bioRxiv. 2025 May 28:2025.05.28.654549. doi: 10.1101/2025.05.28.654549.
Climate change is threatening species with extinction, and rapid evolutionary adaptation may be their only option for population rescue over short ecological timescales. However, direct observations of rapid genetic adaptation and population dynamics across climates are rare across species. To fill this gap, we conducted a replicated, globally synchronized evolution experiment with the plant for 5 years in over 30 outdoor experimental gardens with distinct climates across Europe, the Levant, and North America. We performed whole-genome sequencing on ~70,000 surviving reproductive individuals and directly observed rapid and repeatable adaptation across climates. Allele frequency changes over time were parallel in experimental evolution replicates within the same climates, while they diverged across contrasting climates-with some allele frequency shifts best explained by strong selection between -46% to +60%. Screening the genome for signals of rapid climate adaptation identified a polygenic architecture with both known and novel adaptive genetic variants connected to important ecological phenotypes including environmental stress responses, and and germination and spring flowering timing and . We found evolutionary adaptation trends were often predictable, but variable across environments. In warm climates, high evolutionary predictability was associated with population survival up to 5 years, while erratic trends were an early warning for population extinction. Together, these results show rapid climate adaptation may be possible, but understanding its limits across species will be key for biodiversity forecasting.
气候变化正威胁着物种的灭绝,而快速的进化适应可能是它们在短生态时间尺度上拯救种群的唯一选择。然而,跨物种直接观察快速的基因适应和不同气候条件下的种群动态却很少见。为了填补这一空白,我们在欧洲、黎凡特和北美的30多个具有不同气候条件的户外实验花园中,对这种植物进行了一项为期5年的重复、全球同步的进化实验。我们对约70000个存活的繁殖个体进行了全基因组测序,并直接观察到了不同气候条件下快速且可重复的适应情况。在相同气候条件下,实验进化重复样本中随时间的等位基因频率变化是平行的,而在对比强烈的气候条件下则出现了分歧——一些等位基因频率变化最好由-46%至+60%的强烈选择来解释。通过筛选基因组中快速气候适应的信号,我们确定了一种多基因结构,其中既有已知的也有新的适应性基因变体,这些变体与重要的生态表型相关,包括环境应激反应、发芽和春季开花时间等。我们发现进化适应趋势通常是可预测的,但在不同环境中存在差异。在温暖的气候条件下,高进化可预测性与种群存活长达5年相关,而不稳定的趋势则是种群灭绝的早期预警。总之,这些结果表明快速的气候适应是可能的,但了解其在不同物种中的局限性将是生物多样性预测的关键。
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