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数线估计精度和计算能力对风险金融决策的影响。

The influence of number line estimation precision and numeracy on risky financial decision making.

机构信息

Department of Psychology, Chung-Ang University, Seoul, South Korea.

出版信息

Int J Psychol. 2019 Aug;54(4):530-538. doi: 10.1002/ijop.12475. Epub 2018 Jan 10.

DOI:10.1002/ijop.12475
PMID:29318611
Abstract

This study examined whether different aspects of mathematical proficiency influence one's ability to make adaptive financial decisions. "Numeracy" refers to the ability to process numerical and probabilistic information and is commonly reported as an important factor which contributes to financial decision-making ability. The precision of mental number representation (MNR), measured with the number line estimation (NLE) task has been reported to be another critical factor. This study aimed to examine the contribution of these mathematical proficiencies while controlling for the influence of fluid intelligence, math anxiety and personality factors. In our decision-making task, participants chose between two options offering probabilistic monetary gain or loss. Sensitivity to expected value was measured as an index for the ability to discriminate between optimal versus suboptimal options. Partial correlation and hierarchical regression analyses revealed that NLE precision better explained EV sensitivity compared to numeracy, after controlling for all covariates. These results suggest that individuals with more precise MNR are capable of making more rational financial decisions. We also propose that the measurement of "numeracy," which is commonly used interchangeably with general mathematical proficiency, should include more diverse aspects of mathematical cognition including basic understanding of number magnitude.

摘要

本研究旨在探讨数学能力的不同方面是否会影响人们做出适应性金融决策的能力。“计算能力”是指处理数值和概率信息的能力,通常被认为是影响决策能力的重要因素。心理数字表示精度(MNR),通过数字线估计(NLE)任务来衡量,也被报道为另一个关键因素。本研究旨在检验这些数学能力的贡献,同时控制流体智力、数学焦虑和人格因素的影响。在我们的决策任务中,参与者在两种提供概率性货币收益或损失的选项之间进行选择。对预期价值的敏感性作为区分最佳和次优选项的能力的指标进行测量。偏相关和分层回归分析表明,在控制所有协变量后,NLE 精度比计算能力更好地解释了 EV 敏感性。这些结果表明,具有更精确 MNR 的个体能够做出更理性的财务决策。我们还提出,“计算能力”的测量,通常与一般数学能力互换使用,应该包括数学认知的更多方面,包括对数字大小的基本理解。

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