SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Faculty in Wroclaw, Ostrowskiego 30b, 53-238 Wroclaw, Poland.
SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Faculty in Wroclaw, Ostrowskiego 30b, 53-238 Wroclaw, Poland.
Cognition. 2016 Jun;151:37-41. doi: 10.1016/j.cognition.2016.03.002. Epub 2016 Mar 8.
Statistical numeracy, defined as the ability to understand and process statistical and probability information, plays a significant role in superior decision making. However, recent research has demonstrated that statistical numeracy goes beyond simple comprehension of numbers and mathematical operations. On the contrary to previous studies that were focused on emotions integral to risky prospects, we hypothesized that highly numerate individuals would exhibit more linear probability weighting because they would be less biased by incidental and decision-irrelevant affect. Participants were instructed to make a series of insurance decisions preceded by negative (i.e., fear-inducing) or neutral stimuli. We found that incidental negative affect increased the curvature of the probability weighting function (PWF). Interestingly, this effect was significant only for less numerate individuals, while probability weighting in more numerate people was not altered by decision-irrelevant affect. We propose two candidate mechanisms for the observed effect.
统计数字素养，即理解和处理统计与概率信息的能力，在做出更好的决策方面起着重要作用。然而，最近的研究表明，统计数字素养不仅仅是对数字和数学运算的简单理解。与之前专注于风险前景中不可或缺的情绪的研究相反，我们假设高数字素养的个体将表现出更线性的概率权重，因为他们受偶然和决策不相关的影响的偏差更小。参与者被要求在一系列保险决策之前做出一系列保险决策，这些决策之前有负面（即引起恐惧）或中性刺激。我们发现偶然的负面情绪会增加概率加权函数（PWF）的曲率。有趣的是，这种影响仅在数字素养较低的个体中显著，而决策不相关的情绪不会改变数字素养较高的人的概率权重。我们为观察到的效应提出了两个候选机制。
