Financing elderly people's long-term care needs: Evidence from China.

Confronted by accelerated population aging, China is establishing a long-term care (LTC) system. This study discusses challenges and recommendations for financing China's LTC system. On the basis of the data on elderly people's self-care ability from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, we calculate the size of the elderly population that need LTC for the period from 2015 to 2030 and analyse the increasing tendency of LTC expenses by considering the impact of price increase. We also analyse the local governments' financial capacity for LTC support by comparing the expense level to the fiscal revenue. The study found that aging will double the LTC expenses by 2030. Therefore, this study suggests the establishment of an LTC insurance system that allocates LTC expenses, which are currently borne by individuals and families, more fairly among the government, individuals, and families. Moreover, with the current LTC reforms, implemented primarily by local governments in China, we believe that the central government should bear some of the fiscal responsibility by conducting fiscal transfers to partially support undeveloped regions that are establishing an LTC system.