Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, 12587 Berlin, Germany.
Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Nöthnitzer Straße 38, 01187 Dresden, Germany.
Phys Rev E. 2017 Oct;96(4-1):042211. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.96.042211. Epub 2017 Oct 18.
The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and nonbifurcation-type transitions. We extend this toolbox and report on a characteristic scaling behavior (critical attractor growth) which is indicative of an impending global bifurcation, an interior crisis in excitable systems. We demonstrate our early warning signal in a conceptual climate model as well as in a model of coupled neurons known to exhibit extreme events. We observed critical attractor growth prior to interior crises of chaotic as well as strange-nonchaotic attractors. These observations promise to extend the classes of transitions that can be predicted via early warning signals.
能够可靠地预测动力系统中的关键转变是不同科学领域的长期目标。以前的工作集中在与局部分叉（临界减速）和非分叉型转变相关的预警信号上。我们扩展了这个工具包，并报告了一个特征标度行为（关键吸引子增长），这表明即将发生全局分叉，即兴奋系统中的内部危机。我们在一个概念性的气候模型以及一个已知会发生极端事件的耦合神经元模型中展示了我们的预警信号。我们在混沌和奇异非混沌吸引子的内部危机之前观察到了关键吸引子的增长。这些观察结果有望扩展可以通过预警信号预测的转变类别。
