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山东省2010 - 2016年肾综合征出血热流行病学及时空分布特征分析

[Analysis on epidemiological and temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shandong province, 2010-2016].

作者信息

Zheng Z L, Wang P Z, Xu Q Q, Liu J, Xue F Z, Wang Z Q, Li X J

机构信息

Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China.

Institute of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2018 Jan 10;39(1):58-62. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.01.012.

DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.01.012
PMID:29374897
Abstract

To analyze the epidemiological and temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Shandong province during 2010-2016 and provide references for developing prevention and control measures. Based on the data of Infectious Disease Reporting Information System in China, the incidence and temporal-spatial distribution of HFRS in Shandong from 2010 to 2016 were analyzed by spatial autocorrelation and space-time scan statistics. A total of 9 114 HFRS cases were reported in Shandong during this period. The cases were mainly distributed in age group 30-70 years, and the male to female ratio of the cases was 2.63 ∶ 1. Most cases were farmers. The higher incidence rate was reported in southeastern Shandong, while the lower incidence rate was reported in northwestern Shandong. Among the epidemic periods, the highest incidence rate was 1.87/100 000 in 2013. The results of spatial autocorrelation and space-time scanning indicated that the high-high clusters of HFRS were concentrated in southeastern Shandong and then spread to central Shandong. The cluster mainly occurred from the end of 2011 to the first half of 2015. Both the incidence rate and the cluster decreased in 2016. The epidemic and cluster of HFRS still existed in Shandong from 2010 to 2016. The key areas for the prevention and control of HFRS were in southeastern and central Shandong.

摘要

分析2010 - 2016年山东省肾综合征出血热(HFRS)的流行病学及时空分布特征,为制定防控措施提供参考依据。基于中国传染病报告信息系统的数据,采用空间自相关分析及时空扫描统计方法,对山东省2010 - 2016年HFRS的发病情况及时空分布进行分析。在此期间,山东省共报告HFRS病例9114例。病例主要分布在30 - 70岁年龄组,病例男女比例为2.63∶1。多数病例为农民。山东东南部发病率较高,而山东西北部发病率较低。在流行期间,2013年发病率最高,为1.87/10万。空间自相关及时空扫描结果表明,HFRS的高高聚集区集中在山东东南部,然后蔓延至山东西部。聚集主要发生在2011年末至2015年上半年。2016年发病率及聚集情况均有所下降。2010 - 2016年山东省HFRS疫情及聚集现象仍然存在。山东省HFRS防控的重点地区是东南部和中部。

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