Cai Y N, Han X, Wei Y M, Han Z Y, Liu S Y, Zhang Y B, Xu Y G, Qi S X, Li Q
Department for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Hebei Provincial Key Laboratory of Pathogens and Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, Hebei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shijiazhuang 050021, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2019 Aug 10;40(8):930-935. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2019.08.011.
To explore the spatial-temporal distribution and epidemic characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Hebei province from 2005 to 2016. Records of HFRS cases reported from each county in Hebei during January 2005 to December 2016 were collected from National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS). Global and local spatial association statistics were used to measure the spatial autocorrelation and software GeoDa 1.2.0. Software SaTScan 9.4.1 was used to analyze spatiotemporal clusters. Software ArcGIS 10.2 was used to visualize the yearly scan results. In Hebei province, a total of 8 437 human HFRS cases reported from 170 counties with an annual incidence rate of 0.99/100 000 population during 2005-2016. The peak incidence season was spring. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis on the incidence of HFRS at county-level showed that the value of Moran's were all above 0 (<0.05), indicating that the significant spatial cluster. The result of local indicators on spatial association (LISA) analysis revealed that identified hot spots were mainly in northeastern area, while cold spots were found in some counties of central and southern areas. Spatial-temporal scan detected that the primary cluster of HFRS incidence was mainly distributed in Qinhuangdao city and Tangshan city, including 11 counties (city/district): Beidaihe district, Haigang district, Funing district, Shanhaiguan district, Changli county, Lulong county and Qinglong Manchu autonomous county in Qinhuangdao city, and Qian'an city, Laoting county, Luanzhou city and Luannan county in Tangshan city (=39.64, <0.001), during January-July in 2005. There were significant spatial-temporal cluster of HFRS in Hebei from 2005 to 2016. The cluster areas of HFRS were mainly in northeastern Hebei, it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control programs of HFRS in these areas.
为探究2005年至2016年河北省肾综合征出血热（HFRS）的时空分布及流行特征。从国家法定传染病监测系统（NNDSS）收集了河北省各县2005年1月至2016年12月报告的HFRS病例记录。采用全局和局部空间关联统计量来衡量空间自相关性，并使用软件GeoDa 1.2.0。使用软件SaTScan 9.4.1分析时空聚集性。使用软件ArcGIS 10.2对年度扫描结果进行可视化。2005 - 2016年期间，河北省170个县共报告8437例人间HFRS病例，年发病率为0.99/10万人口。发病高峰季节为春季。对县级HFRS发病率进行的全局空间自相关性分析显示，莫兰指数值均大于0（<0.05），表明存在显著的空间聚集。局部空间关联指标（LISA）分析结果显示，识别出的热点主要在东北部地区，而冷点出现在中部和南部的一些县。时空扫描检测到HFRS发病的主要聚集区主要分布在秦皇岛市和唐山市，包括11个县（市/区）：秦皇岛市的北戴河区、海港区、抚宁区、山海关区、昌黎县、卢龙县和青龙满族自治县，以及唐山市的迁安市、乐亭县、滦州市和滦南县（=39.64，<0.001），时间为2005年1月至7月。2005年至2016年河北省HFRS存在显著的时空聚集。HFRS的聚集区域主要在河北东北部，有必要加强这些地区的HFRS防控工作。
