School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, New South Wales (NSW), Australia.
School of Medical Sciences, University of New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, New South Wales (NSW), Australia.
Euro Surveill. 2018 Jan;23(3). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.3.17-00310.
BackgroundEnterovirus D68 (EV-D68) has historically been a sporadic disease, causing occasional small outbreaks of generally mild infection. In recent years, there has been evidence of an increase in EV-D68 infections globally. Large outbreaks of EV-D68, with thousands of cases, occurred in the United States, Canada and Europe in 2014. The outbreaks were associated temporally and geographically with an increase in clusters of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM). We aimed to evaluate a causal association between EV-D68 and AFM. Using data from the published and grey literature, we applied the Bradford Hill criteria, a set of nine principles applied to examine causality, to evaluate the relationship between EV-D68 and AFM. Based on available evidence, we defined the Bradford Hill Criteria as being not met, or met minimally, partially or fully. Available evidence applied to EV-D68 and AFM showed that six of the Bradford Hill criteria were fully met and two were partially met. The criterion of biological gradient was minimally met. The incidence of EV-D68 infections is increasing world-wide. Phylogenetic epidemiology showed diversification from the original Fermon and Rhyne strains since the year 2000, with evolution of a genetically distinct outbreak strain, clade B1. Clade B1, but not older strains, is associated with AFM and is neuropathic in animal models. While more research is needed on dose-response relationship, application of the Bradford Hill criteria supported a causal relationship between EV-D68 and AFM.
肠道病毒 D68(EV-D68)一直是一种散发性疾病,偶尔会引起轻度感染的小暴发。近年来,有证据表明全球 EV-D68 感染呈上升趋势。2014 年,美国、加拿大和欧洲发生了数千例 EV-D68 大规模暴发,与急性弛缓性脊髓炎(AFM)聚集性病例的增加有关。
我们旨在评估 EV-D68 与 AFM 之间是否存在因果关系。
利用已发表和灰色文献中的数据,我们应用了 9 条用于检查因果关系的布拉德福德·希尔标准,评估了 EV-D68 与 AFM 之间的关系。根据现有证据,我们将布拉德福德·希尔标准定义为未满足、最小程度满足、部分满足或完全满足。
应用于 EV-D68 和 AFM 的现有证据表明,6 项布拉德福德·希尔标准完全满足,2 项部分满足。生物学梯度标准最小程度满足。EV-D68 感染的发病率在全球范围内呈上升趋势。系统进化流行病学显示,自 2000 年以来,原始的 Fermon 和 Rhyne 株发生了多样化,出现了具有遗传特征的暴发株 B1 分支。B1 分支而不是旧株与 AFM 有关,在动物模型中具有神经毒性。
虽然需要进一步研究剂量反应关系,但布拉德福德·希尔标准的应用支持 EV-D68 与 AFM 之间存在因果关系。