López García Ana Isabel
El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Carretera escénica Tijuana - Ensenada, Km 18.5, San Antonio del Mar, 22560 Tijuana, Baja California Mexico.
Comp Migr Stud. 2018;6(1):1. doi: 10.1186/s40878-017-0065-z. Epub 2018 Jan 15.
Most research on the political consequences of international migration conceptualizes financial remittances as being a substitute for state-provided assistance. This paper tests the actual validity of this assumption. Using data from the 2012-2016 Americas Barometer, the analysis confirms previous findings on the negative impact of financial remittances on electoral turnout intentions. However it reveals that this effect does not vary according to an individual's beneficiary status of Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) assistance. This finding is corroborated using data aggregated at the municipal level within Mexico. Accordingly, voter turnout rates in a given municipality for the 2012 presidential election are negatively associated with the percentage of households receiving remittances in that municipality. However, this association does not vary with the spending on CCT assistance within a given municipality. The evidence thus suggests that financial remittances undermine electoral participation through mechanisms other than the substitution of state-sponsored assistance, and as such further research is needed for us to discover what is really going on here.
大多数关于国际移民政治后果的研究将金融汇款概念化为国家提供援助的替代品。本文检验了这一假设的实际有效性。利用2012 - 2016年美洲晴雨表的数据，分析证实了先前关于金融汇款对选举投票意向产生负面影响的研究结果。然而，研究表明，这种影响并不会因个人是否为有条件现金转移支付（CCT）援助的受益者而有所不同。使用墨西哥市级层面汇总的数据也证实了这一发现。相应地，2012年总统选举中特定市镇的选民投票率与该市镇接受汇款的家庭比例呈负相关。然而，这种关联并不会因特定市镇内CCT援助的支出情况而有所不同。因此，有证据表明，金融汇款通过替代国家资助援助以外的机制削弱了选举参与度，因此我们需要进一步研究以弄清楚这里到底发生了什么。
