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模拟和绘制气候变化下中国猕猴桃细菌性溃疡病菌的当前及未来分布情况。

Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China.

作者信息

Wang Rulin, Li Qing, He Shisong, Liu Yuan, Wang Mingtian, Jiang Gan

机构信息

College of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.

Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Center, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2018 Feb 1;13(2):e0192153. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0192153. eCollection 2018.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China.

METHOD

Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation.

RESULT

The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa.

CONCLUSION

The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.

摘要

目的

由奇异溃疡病菌(Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae,Psa)引起的猕猴桃细菌性溃疡病是全球猕猴桃产业面临的主要威胁,在中国也造成了巨大经济损失。本研究旨在测试和探索使用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测和分析Psa未来在中国大规模分布的可能性。

方法

基于当前环境因子、政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第五次报告提出的三种未来气候情景以及Psa当前分布地点,运用MaxEnt结合ArcGIS预测Psa在中国的潜在适生区及变化趋势。采用刀切法检验和相关性分析选择主导气候因子。利用MaxEnt绘制的受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)评估模拟精度。

结果

结果表明,在当前气候条件下,中国北纬25°至36°、东经101°至122°的区域是Psa的主要潜在适生区。高适生区(适生性在66至100之间)主要集中在四川东北部、陕西南部、重庆大部分地区、湖北西部和甘肃西南部,占中国陆地面积的4.94%。在不同的未来排放情景下,适生区的面积和中心与当前情况相比均有差异。四个气候变量,即4月最高温度(19%)、最冷月平均温度(14%)、5月降水量(11.5%)和10月最低温度(10.8%),对Psa的分布影响最大。

结论

MaxEnt模型在预测气候变化下Psa未来的适应性分布方面具有潜在应用价值,并为综合管理提供了重要指导。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dc13/5794145/e59fc137544e/pone.0192153.g001.jpg

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