Departamento de Salud Pública, Escuela de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, México.
Coordinación General de Institutos Nacionales de Salud y Hospitales de Alta Especialidad, Ministerio de Salud, Ciudad de México, México.
Arch Med Res. 2017 Oct;48(7):653-662. doi: 10.1016/j.arcmed.2018.01.003.
Dengue Fever (DF) is a human vector-borne disease and a major public health problem worldwide. In Mexico, DF and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) cases have increased in recent years. The aim of this study was to identify variations in the spatial distribution of DF and DHF cases over time using space-time statistical analysis and geographic information systems.
Official data of DF and DHF cases were obtained in 32 states from 1995-2015. Space-time scan statistics were used to determine the space-time clusters of DF and DHF cases nationwide, and a geographic information system was used to display the location of clusters.
A total of 885,748 DF cases was registered of which 13.4% (n = 119,174) correspond to DHF in the 32 states from 1995-2015. The most likely cluster of DF (relative risk = 25.5) contained the states of Jalisco, Colima, and Nayarit, on the Pacific coast in 2009, and the most likely cluster of DHF (relative risk = 8.5) was in the states of Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Quintana Roo, Yucatán, Puebla, Morelos, and Guerrero principally on the Gulf coast over 2006-2015.
The geographic distribution of DF and DHF cases has increased in recent years and cases are significantly clustered in two coastal areas (Pacific and Gulf of Mexico). This provides the basis for further investigation of risk factors as well as interventions in specific areas.
登革热（DF）是一种人类媒介传播疾病，也是全球主要的公共卫生问题。在墨西哥，近年来 DF 和登革出血热（DHF）病例有所增加。本研究的目的是使用时空统计分析和地理信息系统来确定 DF 和 DHF 病例随时间的空间分布变化。
获得了 1995-2015 年 32 个州的 DF 和 DHF 病例的官方数据。使用时空扫描统计来确定全国范围内 DF 和 DHF 病例的时空聚类，并使用地理信息系统显示聚类的位置。
共登记了 885748 例 DF 病例，其中 13.4%（n=119174）为 1995-2015 年 32 个州的 DHF。DF 最有可能的聚类（相对风险=25.5）包含太平洋沿岸的哈利斯科州、科利马州和纳亚里特州，2009 年，DHF 最有可能的聚类（相对风险=8.5）位于恰帕斯州、塔巴斯科州、坎佩切州、瓦哈卡州、韦拉克鲁斯州、金塔纳罗奥州、尤卡坦州、普埃布拉州、莫雷洛斯州和格雷罗州，主要是在 2006-2015 年期间墨西哥湾沿岸。
近年来，DF 和 DHF 病例的地理分布有所增加，病例在两个沿海地区（太平洋和墨西哥湾）明显聚集。这为进一步调查危险因素以及在特定地区进行干预提供了基础。
