Davidsson Marcus
Economist and Independent Researcher, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=895329.
Healthcare (Basel). 2018 Feb 13;6(1):16. doi: 10.3390/healthcare6010016.
1 million people are predicted to get infected with Lyme disease in the USA in 2018. Given the same incidence rate of Lyme disease in Europe as in the USA, then 2.4 million people will get infected with Lyme disease in Europe in 2018. In the USA by 2050, 55.7 million people (12% of the population) will have been infected with Lyme disease. In Europe by 2050, 134.9 million people (17% of the population) will have been infected with Lyme disease. Most of these infections will, unfortunately, become chronic. The estimated treatment cost for acute and chronic Lyme disease for 2018 for the USA is somewhere between 4.8 billion USD and 9.6 billion USD and for Europe somewhere between 10.1 billion EUR and 20.1 billion EUR. If governments do not finance IV treatment with antibiotics for chronic Lyme disease, then the estimated government cost for chronic Lyme disease for 2018 for the USA is 10.1 billion USD and in Europe 20.1 billion EUR. If governments in the USA and Europe want to minimize future costs and maximize future revenues, then they should pay for IV antibiotic treatment up to a year even if the estimated cure rate is as low as 25%. The cost for governments of having chronic Lyme patients sick in perpetuity is very large.
预计2018年美国将有100万人感染莱姆病。鉴于欧洲莱姆病的发病率与美国相同,那么2018年欧洲将有240万人感染莱姆病。到2050年,美国将有5570万人(占人口的12%)感染过莱姆病。到2050年,欧洲将有1.349亿人(占人口的17%)感染过莱姆病。不幸的是,这些感染中的大多数将转为慢性。2018年美国急性和慢性莱姆病的估计治疗费用在48亿美元至96亿美元之间,欧洲在101亿欧元至201亿欧元之间。如果政府不为慢性莱姆病的抗生素静脉治疗提供资金,那么2018年美国慢性莱姆病的估计政府成本为101亿美元,欧洲为201亿欧元。如果美国和欧洲的政府想要将未来成本降至最低并使未来收入最大化,那么即使估计治愈率低至25%,他们也应该为长达一年的抗生素静脉治疗付费。让慢性莱姆病患者永远患病对政府来说成本非常高。